Lamar Jackson Passing Touchdowns: Over/Under
A dominant MVP and record-breaking performance in 2019 has fantasy football fans and sports bettors asking what’s next for Lamar Jackson. The Ravens quarterback threw a remarkable 36 touchdowns a year ago, yet the sportsbooks have his Over/Under TD total set to 26.5.
Sports Illustrated’s gambling analyst Jaime Eisner and Ravens reporter Todd Karpovich discuss what to expect from the third year passer and which side of this prop bet you should wager on.
Karpovich wrote about the “evolution” of Jackson in a recent article on RavenCountry and interviewed the league’s reigning MVP about his ability to both run and pass. Here’s what Jackson had to say about his playmaking ability: "To be honest, it really doesn't matter, as long as it's going to help us win the game…But I doubt that I am going to be carrying the ball a lot going further into the future because we have dynamic running backs and even more receivers."
Read the full video transcript of Eisner and Karpovich’s gambling analysis below:
Ben Enright: A dominant MVP performance in twenty nineteen from Lamar Jackson has sports gamblers wondering if he's going to exceed his passing touchdown total, which is currently set at twenty six and a half. Let's bring on Jamie Eisner, a gambling analyst here at Sports Illustrated. And also Todd Karpovich, who covers the Baltimore Ravens for Raven Country. Todd, I'll start with you. Last year, Jackson, 36 touchdowns. What do you think he'll do in 2020?
Todd Karpovich: Thirty six touchdowns, a lot to ask for, and I guess a common theme with the entire Ravens team is what are they going to do for an encore? Fourteen wins breaking a single season rushing record. Lamar Jackson. Unanimous MVP thirty six touchdowns. I think I'll be hard pressed to go over thirty six touchdowns, even though I'll have some more weapons this year. But again, the Ravens are a run first team and I think I've seen the over/under with Jackson around twenty six twenty seven touchdown passes. I think I'd be a realistic expectation for him in 2020.
Ben Enright: So Jamie Todd mentioned the total projected touchdowns from the sports books for Jackson, it's set at twenty six and a half, according to FanDuel Sports Book. Which way are you coming down on this number?
Jaime Eisner:] It pains me, but I'm going to take the under. I love Lamar, but I'm expecting a similar touchdown percentage regression that we've seen two years ago with Carson Wentz, who led the league in touchdown percentage and last year with Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes chopped off about 3.2 percent last season. So if you take that same touchdown drop for Lamar Jackson, add in an additional game, because it's gonna be a lot more difficult for teams to sit out in week seventeen given the new playoff format and you get to about twenty three passing touchdowns this year. Even if you drop it from 9 percent to 6 percent, he still doesn't get to that twenty seven mark for the over. And last year. Only four quarterbacks in the NFL threw a higher touchdown percentage than six percent.
Ben Enright: All right. You're going under on the twenty six and a half for Lamar. Wow. Fantasy football and gamblers beware. Plenty more fantasy and gambling analysis from Sports Illustrated. You can find it at si.com/gambling.