Lock-In the Over on Saquon Barkley’s Rushing Prop Bet

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In each of Saquon Barkley’s first two seasons in the NFL, the Giants running back has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark. As a rookie, he rushed for 1,307 yards, and in his second year, he rushed for 1,003 yards (while missing three games). For 2020, his rushing total is set by the oddsmakers at 1,250.

Barkley is clearly the focal point of the Giants offense and after playing in 2019 with a bum ankle, the third-year rusher deemed himself 100% healthy for 2020. 

Sports Illustrated’s Frank Taddeo and GiantsCountry’s Patricia Traina weigh in on Barkley going OVER his rushing prop total. 

Read the full transcript below: 

Bill Enright: Widely considered one of the best running backs in the NFL, Saquon Barkley has back to back one thousand yard seasons. Will he get to 1,250 yards in 2020? That's what the oddsmakers have him set at for his over/under rushing total. Let's find out what Frankie Taddeo our fantasy and gambling analyst here at Sports Illustrated. And Patricia Traina, who covers the Giants, have to say about Barkley's rushing prop. Patricia, I'm going to start with you first. When it comes to the Giants offense. Everything really does run through Barkley, can he get to over 1,250 yards?

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Patricia Traina: Theoretically, yes, but it all depends on that offensive line. How many years now have we heard the offensive line is fixed? The offensive line is fixed, and then we go and we see that the line isn't fixed. So that's going to be a big factor for the Giants. Can that offensive line make Saquon Barkley's life a little easier so that he doesn't have to scratch and claw for every yard? And then the other factor here that we have to take into consideration is are the Giants going to use Barkley as more of a receiver out of the backfield - something they didn't really do his first two years, which will cut into his rushing yardage total. So if I were taking the bet there, I would go with the under, I think, but not by much.

Bill Enright: Frank, let me go over to you. What are the oddsmakers saying? Where's the juice on this prop?

Frank Taddeo: Yeah. Bill, right now there isn't too much juice, so the oddsmakers are saying take your poison. You know, more or less pick. Right now it's kind of early in the season, but I kind of go against Patricia a little bit here. I actually believe, according to my model, that thanks to Jason Garrett, the new offensive coordinator of the New York Giants, coming over from the Dallas Cowboys, we know his propensity to lean on star players and Saquon Barkley's only going to need 78.2 yards per game to be able to go over this number. 

Dec 1, 2019; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) runs the ball against the Green Bay Packers during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

I actually believe that his numbers in the passing game are going to once again regress as we saw a massive drop off from his rookie campaign to last season in the passing game. But we know that was due to missing three games due to injury. So for me, I actually believe that this is a bet to go over because I think they're going to give him the ball. They're going to hand him the rock and they going to say run the ball. But I actually think his numbers in the passing game are going to stay a little bit lower once again.

Bill Enright: Patricia and Frank, thank you guys for your analysis. We are breaking down a lot of the NFL players and their prop bets. You can find more from Sports Illustrated by going to SI.com/Gambling