New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara has a touchdown total (rushing and receiving) prop bet of 10.5 with the under being the favorite at -130 and the over at +102.
Even if the oddsmakers have the juice on the under, the 10.5 number is an indication the sportsbooks are predicting a bounce back season for the 24 year-old playmaker. During an injury plagued season in 2019, Kamara found pay-dirt just six times. But the 10.5 prop bet total is much more in line with his 2017 and 2018 season when he scored 13 and 18 times.
Saints News Network’s Kyle Mosley and Sports Illustrated’s gambling analyst Frank Taddeo weigh in on the Alvin Kamara touchdown prop.
Read the full transcript from the interview:
Bill Enright: After an injury plagued season in 2019, oddsmakers are predicting Saints running back Alvin Kamara will have a bounce back season in 2020. But what do our analysts have to say about that? Let's bring on gambling analyst Frank Taddeo and Saints News Network's Kyle Mosley to talk about the Saints playmaker. Frankie, I'll start with you on this one. When it comes to Kamara's touchdowns, what are the oddsmakers putting the line at?
Frank Taddeo: Yeah, Bill. Right now over at Fanduel sportsbook, we see the total touchdowns for Kamara set at 10.5, juiced moderately to the under right now at odds of -120. So for me right now, Bill, I actually projected he's going to come back healthy, come back strong. And in this offense, my model has him coming way back to where he was two seasons ago. We know that there was a tremendous drop off, a tremendous regression in his overall season last year due to injury, but I think that my model right now has him standing at 13.4 touchdowns total on the season, both through the air and on the ground. So for me, this is a strong wager to the over and a big wager to the over because I see immense potential for him to get above double digits here, Bill. So I will have a play on the over.
Bill Enright: Kyle when it comes to the Saints, no one is more dialed in than you. Let's talk about Kamara's 2020 outlook because we know that he played a little bit banged up in 2019.
Kyle Mosley: Yeah, he was on one bad wheel. Kamara said he was at 75%, he has been training down in Florida with Dr. Reef. Man, if you looked at some of those monster workouts that he's doing, I'd have to believe that Kamara is going to probably exceed his performance in 2018 for the Saints. So my projection for Kamara is around 15 touchdowns, but I think he may be closer to 18 because the Saints are going to have to rely on Kamara coming out of the backfield because they have some very tough defenses to face in 2020.
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