Odds and Predictions for Derrick Henry’s Yards Prop Bet

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Derrick Henry had a career year in 2019. His 1,540 yards was the most by any running back in the NFL and his 16 touchdowns was tied for the most. But what’s in store for the Titans rusher in 2020?

The oddsmaker set his total rushing and receiving yardage total at 1,509 with odds on the over and under at -112. AllTitans editor David Boclair and Sports Illustrated’s gambling analyst Jaime Eisner joined Bill Enright to breakdown which bet gamblers should take when it comes to Henry’s yardage in 2020.

Read the full transcript from the interview below:

Bill Enright: Titans running back Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing in 2019. But how many total yards will he have in 2020? For that answer, I go to Jaime Eisner, our fantasy and gambling analyst here at Sports Illustrated and David Boclair from AllTitans. Jaime, I'll start with you. Let's break down what the odds makers have in store when it comes to Derrick Henry's total rushing and receiving yardage prop. 

Jaime Eisner: Yeah, right now that's sitting at a little over 1500 at 1509.5 with even -112 on both sides. That represents about a 13.5% drop from his total yardage from last year. There's some pros and cons to this. We saw a big spike with Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback in Henry's total rushing yards and receiving. He averaged 106.6 yards per game from week ten on the last two seasons, so that narrative of him being stronger as the season goes longer is absolutely true. The concern here is he doesn't catch the ball a lot, and if he stays at his current 4.8 yards per carry rate and even if he matches his career high in receiving yards last year, he is going to need north of 270 carries to get above this total. He did that last year, but I'm not quite sure he's going to be touching 300 this year, at least in an ideal scenario. 

Bill Enright: David, let's go over to you. You heard Jamie mentioned the 1500 give or take ten yards, over under total for this year. I mean, Henry is really the focal point of this offense, right? 

David Boclair: Yeah. He has been since the the last quarter of the 2018 season. In his last 19 games he's averaged a little over 111 rushing yards per game. Last season he had 7 touchdown plays of 65 yards or more, so he's a big play guy too. His 303 carries last season was not necessarily a big number when you compare it to other NFL rushing champions of the last couple of years. So I think the feeling is there's actually a little bit more that the Titans can do. Jaime's point about him not being involved in the pass game is is very well-taken. John Robinson recently noted in an interview, the Titans general manager, he said, yeah, Derek's really good at running the ball. I think this is a team that is built to run the ball, and we'll try to do exactly that in 2020.

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