The oddsmakers have set Michael Thomas’ player prop for total touchdowns at 8.5 with an over/under at -112.
When it comes to wide receivers in the NFL, Michael Thomas is one of, if not the most dominant pass catcher. His 149 catches in 2019 broke an NFL record and his 1,725 yards was the most in the league by over 300 yards. He’s scored nine touchdowns in three of the last four seasons which bodes well for anyone looking to bet the over on his touchdown player prop in 2020.
Saints News Network’s Kyle Mosley and Sports Illustrated’s gambling analyst Frank Taddeo weigh in on the Michael Thomas touchdown prop.
Read the full transcript from the interview:
Bill Enright: Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas has scored 9 touchdowns in three of the last four seasons, and as he looks to extend that streak, bettors look to bet on his 8.5 touchdown total, which seems like a lock considering his proclivity to score at least 9 every year. Let's bring on Frank Taddeo our fantasy and gambling insider here at Sports Illustrated, and Kyle Mosley from the Saints News Network. Kyle, I'm going to start with you here. Michael Thomas, we know he led the league in yards last year. We know his 149 catches set a single season record. But when it comes to touchdowns, he hasn't quite cracked that double digit mark. But he does seem like a lock for nine, right?
Kyle Mosley: Well, I have him projected a nine, but I believe he could go over ten. Think about it, last season, five games he was missing Drew Brees. It's not to discount what Teddy Bridgewater was able to do, but, you know, when you look at him sharing the ball with Jared Cook, now you have Emmanuel Sanders on board and we cannot forget about Alvin Kamara coming out of the backfield. So he has other weapons that he's going to have to compete with to get the ball from Drew Brees.
Bill Enright: Frank, let's go over to you, because the oddsmakers seem to have this one at 8.5, where is the juice and which way are you going?
Frank Taddeo: Yeah, Bill, the juice is going exactly where you are predicting that it should go and all three of us. I mean, right now the juice is set at -130 right now to the over, and I believe that that's the right number. My model has him projected at 9.6. And for a player that has seen 140 targets over the last three seasons alone. I mean, if you're looking at 140+ targets, that volume equals production. That kind of production equals a payday for all bettors. Give me the over. He is a model of consistency. Michael Thomas hits this, and hits it with ease once again.
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