Russell Wilson Passing Touchdowns Prop Bet: Odds and Predictions

Video Duration:
2:40

Russell Wilson has thrown for 30 or more touchdowns in three consecutive seasons and in four of the last five years.

In fact, since 2016, no quarterback has thrown for more touchdowns (121) than Wilson. For the 2020 season, oddsmakers correctly set Wilson’s touchdown total at 30.5, which is about a touchdown below his average the last three seasons. Sports Illustrated’s gambling analyst Jaime Eisner and Seahawk Maven Corbin Smith discuss if gamblers should bet on the over or under for Wilson’s prop bet. 

Read full video transcript below: 

Bill Enright: Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has a touchdown total of 30.5 for the 2020 season. Should sports gamblers bet on the over or under. Let's find out what SI fantasy and gambling analyst Jaime Eisner and Seahawk Maven Corbin Smith have to say about this prop bet. Jaime, I'll start with you. Break it down from the odds angle.

Jaime Eisner: Yeah it's listed pretty high here at 30.5 at -110 odds on both sides, but Russell Wilson surpassed this total last year, throwing for 31 touchdowns. That's actually his average over the last five years. And he's averaged more than 33 touchdowns over the last three years. Look, he's a player that is obviously, you know, in the MVP candidate conversation every single year. And he's always going to have a high touchdown percentage based on the way the Seahawks run their offense. So I'm not running away from him because of that stat. If he stays around that 510, 520 attempts that he had last year, he very well could hit the over on this number. 

Bill Enright: Corbin, I'll go over to you because since 2016, no quarterback in the NFL has more passing touchdowns than Russell Wilson, and yet I still feel like he's being undervalued and underrated, especially with this 30.5 touchdown prop, which Jaime mentioned is a little bit below his touchdown average. 

Corbin Smith: Yeah, I love the Jamie mentioned the fact that he's had 33 touchdowns per season in the last three years. This has been pretty easy for him to get past this 30.5 touchdown mark. And then when you consider what the Seahawks have brought in the off season, they haven't added any superstars necessarily, but I think Phillip Dorsett is in a perfect scheme for his skill set. It's another guy with sub forfour speed and good hands, a downfield vertical threat. Russell Wilson loves to add as many of those as he can to the offense. They added Greg Olsen in free agency who I still think has plenty of juice left in the tank. DK Metcalf is coming into his second season after 900 receiving yards last year for the Seahawks. And you've got Tyler Lockett who had 1000 yards last year. They've got tons of weapons around him, and I get the feeling, based on what I've been told, the Seahawks are going to throw the ball a little bit more aggressively this year. As the fans like to say, they're going to let Russell cook just a little bit more. I think some of the free agent additions they've made on the offensive line, adding some better pass protectors upfront indicates that's the direction they're going. So I think he easily surpasses this as long as he stays healthy, which he's been able to do throughout his entire NFL career, never missing a start. 

MORE FROM SI GAMBLING