After finishing two of the last three years with less than nine wins, some think Texas head coach Tom Herman might be on the hot seat in Austin. The oddsmakers set their win total at 9.5 and with road games against UCF and LSU to start the year along with intense rivalries with Oklahoma in the Big 12 getting to the over on that win total will be a tough task. Luckily for the Longhorns, quarterback Sam Ehlinger will start the year healthy as he looks to make a push for a run at the Heisman Trophy.
Sports Illustrated’s gambling analyst Frank Taddeo and LonghornsCountry’s Chris Duke run through the Texas schedule and make their predictions on their season win total and likelihood of winning the Big 12 Championship.
Read the full transcript from their conversation below:
Bill Enright: We are continuing our college football betting preview with a look at the Texas Longhorns. And for that, I go to our fantasy and gambling analyst Frank Taddeo, and Longhorn Country reporter Chris Dukes. Chris, I'm going to start with you. Give me a breakdown, an overview of what you expect to see from Texas this year when it comes to their football team.
Chris Dukes: Well, it's really a make or break season for Tom Herman. You know, he cleaned house, brought in seven new assistant coaches, has 16 starters back. He's got the guys he wants in there. He can't blame anything on Charlie Strong. You can't blame anything on any of the assistants. This is a make or break year for Tom Herman, and it's Big 12 title or bust for this fan base, in my opinion.
Bill Enright: Frank, let me go over to you for the odds and ends of things with an emphasis on the odds. Give me your breakdown of what you're seeing from the odds makers.
Frank Taddeo: Yeah, Bill, right now Pointsbet Sportsbook, they actually have their season win total projection set at 9. And we're starting to see some decent moderate action towards the under with odds now of -135 for bettors looking to go in that direction. For me, I actually think that that market is a complete pass because as we know, the odds makers have set them as an underdog three times this year, and that's with their games against LSU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. So for me, I actually land right on 9, and I think there's no value. The value for bettors, though, Bill, I actually believe is with quarterback Sam Ehlinger and his Heisman Trophy odds at 18 to 1. As we know, if we could do a deep little dive, we can see that in every year at the collegiate level, his completion rate, passing yards and touchdowns have all gone up. Now, a seasoned senior, if he's able to make another huge leap in his development, bettors could be looking at a true sleeper with tremendous value in the Heisman Trophy market at odds of 18 to 1.
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