2023 PGA Championship: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Oak Hill Country Club
What if one of the most important keys to contending this week was on the scorecard and not on the course? The 105th PGA Championship will be played at famed Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y., whose East Course has hosted several major championships and a Ryder Cup over the decades. Its 7,394 yards covers acres of lush northern grasses split by a creek meandering throughout the property.
The forecast is interesting. I believe we will experience three different seasons this week: fall, winter, and spring. Temperatures are expected to range from near freezing on Thursday morning to 75 degrees on Friday afternoon. Seasonable wind is expected and a decent chance of rain on Saturday. The accumulation may not be more than a quarter-inch, but it will be felt on the course.
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Ninety-nine of the Top 100 players in the OWGR (Will Zalatoris is injured) are here to compete for the season’s second major championship. If they wish to win the Wanamaker trophy on Sunday, they had better be great at the following skill set.
- The East Course went through an extensive renovation by architect Andrew Green starting in 2015 and completed in 2019, and part of the update included the removal of 600 trees. In doing so the course not only became lusher, but sightlines reappeared from the original Donald Ross design. Our winner this week will have an elite week driving the golf ball. Power and accuracy will count over 72 holes and create separation amongst the contenders.
- Taking on 7,400 yards is a tall task. One of the biggest challenges comes on approach. One-third of the iron shots come from over 200 yards. Include the approach bucket from 175-200 yards, and now you have more than 60% of the attacking shots. Long-iron acumen will be vital toward contending. Another requirement of the green-in-regulation game is height. These greens will only accept higher trajectory shots. High-ball hitters who have excellent radar from long range will be leaderboard-friendly.
- The greens are less receptive due to the Green renovation. Andrew and his team expanded and smoothed out the surfaces, creating more runoffs and hole locations near the edges. More approach shots will end up off the putting surfaces, and play around the green will play a key role throughout the championship. Short-game skill to save a timely par or score on a par-5 third shot are an extra key most won’t consider on this lengthy test.
- The players will face 12 par 4s in each round, and seven of those are over 460 yards. The complement of skills it takes to score on the 320-yard 14th and 503-yard 6th are quite different. If you lead the field in par-4 scoring, I like your chances of winning.
I wrapped with the point about par-4s for a specific reason. When you add up the scorecard on the East Course it equals 70. Although only separated by two strokes, competing on a par-72 versus a par-70 major championship is much different. Gone in most cases are two extra par 5s. The two left at Oak Hill are both over 615 yards!
Combine those two holes with two par-3s over 230 yards and there are a limited number of scoring chances. In the past five years on the PGA Tour, the top 10 par-70 scorers in order are: Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Kevin Na and Justin Rose. Where are Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler?
This is the ultimate point about this parkland test. Players will have to create chances on 600-yard par-5s and long par-4s. Over the course of 72 holes, the best par-70 style players will succeed. When you look at that list you quickly see a very strong correlation between that group. We covered those same skills in the bullet points above. Being well-rounded counts extra when par is lowered. My win, place, and show this week is designed with this mindset.
Win: Xander Schauffele
The PGA Tour has a strong group of candidates for the "best player without a major" crown. I believe Xander Schauffele will exit that conversation on Sunday. As a top-10 ranked tee-to-green player, he’s ranked first in the field for par-5 scoring over 600 yards. What seems like a specific stat represents why he will win. He’s plenty powerful enough to play this course. The approach game is accurate and from inside 100 yards he can score from any situation. Take Xander Schauffele (+1600 SI Sportsbook) to win the PGA Championship.
Last week's pick: Hideki Matsuyama was the choice to go lowest at the Byron Nelson, 15 under (T23) wasn't nearly low enough.
Place: Patrick Cantlay
I went back and forth between Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay to select an outright winner. Ultimately, Schauffele's major resume won out, but Cantlay is coming on strong. He’s the best driver of the golf ball in the world right now, an edge that will be significant over 72 holes this week. Much like Schauffele the scoring capabilities are there, especially on bentgrass. Add Tiger’s former caddie into the mix (Joe LaCava) and he’s sure to contend. Take Patrick Cantlay to finish top 10 (+188 SI Sportsbook).
Last week's pick: K.H. Lee finished T50, not the top 20 we were looking for.
Showdown: Keegan Bradley over Tom Kim
If power and precision on long, damp, difficult golf courses were a statistical category, Keegan Bradley would be leading it. He won last fall in the wet conditions of the Zozo and in 2018 at the BMW in Philadelphia. That win came on another Donald Ross course. Bradley’s northeast success gives him an edge over most of this field. Matched against Tom Kim, who doesn’t have the power or experience on this type of terrain, I love Bradley. Kim has been shaky with the putter and short game combined. Not converting birdie putts will cost him over all four rounds alongside the lack of length. Take Keegan Bradley over Tom Kim (-102 FanDuel).
Last week's pick: Winner! Adam Scott continued his strong play in the Byron Nelson, finishing T8 and defeating Seamus Power by three shots in our showdown bet.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Jon Rahm +750
Scottie Scheffler +750
Rory McIlroy +1200
Xander Schauffele +1600
Brooks Koepka +1800
Patrick Cantlay +1800
Justin Thomas +2200
Tony Finau +2200
Dustin Johnson +2500
Jason Day +2500
Cameron Smith +2800
Cameron Young +2800
Matt Fitzpatrick +2800
Viktor Hovland +2800
Sungjae Im +3000
Collin Morikawa +3300
Jordan Spieth +3300
Max Homa +3300
Tyrrell Hatton +3500
Sam Burns +4000
Hideki Matsuyama +5000
Tommy Fleetwood +5000