2023 Wells Fargo Championship: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Quail Hollow Club
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Walking the grounds at Quail Hollow Club, I feel a sense of rejuvenation amongst the players. I realize it has only been two weeks since our last designated event in Hilton Head, but since the WM Phoenix Open, most of these elite players had not had more than one week off at time. I saw it on their faces and heard it in the interview room. The world’s best players were exhausted by mid-April.
Sitting through Xander Schauffele’s and Justin Thomas’s press conferences today, I felt a reboot of sorts. Guys have officially recovered from the Masters and more importantly the strain of the weather that week. Each spoke of assessing their season and what was next on their personal agendas. Nobody mentioned the fact the two best players in the game aren’t here, but you know they are thinking it.
Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are hitting the reset button themselves and decided to skip the Wells Fargo Championship. We have returned to the Queen City of Charlotte and the Quail Hollow Club. The host venue for all but two tournaments since 2003, the par-71 scorecard stretches 7,538 yards. When you are on property, you feel as if you’re visiting the Augusta National of North Carolina. Fifteen holes have elevation changes, there’s perfectly placed water penalties and the green surfaces are slick.
A field of 156 players are ready to let loose on this massive landscape. Sixty-one bunkers are overshadowed by extremely long par 4s and brutally penal par 3s. The targets aren’t small at 6,578 square feet on average, they are just far away from the players. Nine of the 11 par 4s at Quail Hollow are over 450 yards. The course is just 16 yards shorter than ANGC and it has one fewer par 5!
Six of the top 10 in the OWGR (seven of top 10 SIWGR) are competing to get inside the top 65 and ties and win part of the $20 million dollar purse ($3.6 million for first). These designated events do identify the best players. To date, if you include the PLAYERS and the Masters, Rahm and Scheffler have combined to win five of the eight elite events. Watching the players prepare, I get the sense they are not missed.
Quail Hollow Club hosted the Presidents Cup last September. The course played firm and fast for the global match play exhibition. On Friday, QHC received 2.66” of rain. That gave the region six and a half inches of precipitation for April. Since 25 of the 30 days in April were over 65 degrees, we have prime growing conditions. The forecast for this week is good. Mild wind conditions are expected with temperatures in the 70s. There’s a chance of rain Friday overnight into Saturday morning, but nothing significant at this point. Length is key part of the equation at Quail Hollow and having walked all 18 holes I can tell you the course stretches 5.2 miles.
Most feel the Green Mile (holes 16, 17, and 18) is the signature stretch of this scorecard, but don’t be fooled—it takes more than a three-hole run to contend. You must go back 13 years to cover the last 10 editions of the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow, and those 10 champions share a couple of common traits. Let’s start with the most important.
- Putting is the most significant strokes-gained stat by the winners, with the average final edge with the flagstick being over six strokes. For a course that screams "bring your driver and long irons," it is very interesting to know you cannot win without your putter. In the last eight editions, six winners have gained more than five strokes with the flatstick.
- That driver will get used. The second biggest average gains came off the tee, and without a stock 300-yard drive, any competitor will struggle to keep up. Based upon the fact Quail Hollow’s driving distance is 17 yards longer than the Tour average, the proof is more than just inside the numbers.
- It isn’t often strokes-gained approach takes on a secondary role, let alone third. The iron game is important at QHC, but I believe the range to the target is so challenging that players struggle to differentiate themselves by irons alone. Therefore, the group at the top remains tight. Know this, they all are great mid- to long-iron players.
- If there’s one glaring difference between Augusta National and Quail Hollow, it can be seen and felt around the greens. Contenders have not shown great gains around the green.
The average winning score over the last 10 Quail Hollow competitions is 13 under par. The cutline falls just over par at 1 over par and, overall, this major championship host venue plays much like they are hosting one annually. Par-4 scoring is another key indicator. With so many brutal par-4s, keeping your score on these holes under par will put you in contention on Sunday afternoon.
After sharing the sights and sounds from walking the property, here are my best Win, Place, and Show bets for the Wells Fargo Championship.
Win: Rickie Fowler
What I have seen from Rickie Fowler’s game has me ready to believe he can win. Fowler has made all eight cuts this year with five top-15 finishes. In his last five starts, his strokes-gained total average is more than six strokes over the field. In 10 starts at Quail Hollow he has four top 10s and just one missed cut. Rickie played well here even in the lean years. The 2012 Wells Fargo winner is ready to for his first title in a long time at the site where he captured his first one. Take Rickie Fowler (+3500 SI Sportsbook) to win the Wells Fargo Championship.
Last week's pick: No dice at a good price for Gary Woodland in Mexico, he finished T39.
Place: Jordan Spieth
If there is one guy who is hitting it better than Fowler, it is Jordan Spieth. Despite him gaining more than 10 strokes against the field on average in his last five starts, you still can get positive odds on a top 20 return. Spieth has finished four times inside the top 5 in his last five starts! Double your money and take Jordan Spieth to finish inside the top 20 (+100 SI Sportsbook).
Last week's pick: Aaron Rai was the choice for a top 20 finish but missed the cut.
Showdown: Matt Fitzpatrick over Justin Thomas
Getting an underdog head-to-head win is like making a 25-foot birdie putt: It should happen more often than it does. We have a great chance this week favoring Matt Fitzpatrick over Justin Thomas. Going in the opposite direction on the OWGR board, Thomas’s odds are biased by his PGA win here six years ago. Fitzpatrick is hitting more greens in regulation and taking better advantage of his putting ability. Thomas can’t quite figure out the flatstick and as a result has dropped to 15th in the world (12th SIWGR). Take Matt Fitzpatrick over Justin Thomas (+108 FanDuel).
Last week's pick: Winner! Nicolai Hojgaard made the cut and Alex Noren did not, which is the kind of easy cash we like in showdowns.
For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Wells Fargo Championship, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Rory McIlroy +700
Patrick Cantlay +1300
Xander Schauffele +1400
Tony Finau +1500
Jordan Spieth +1800
Viktor Hovland +1800
Cameron Young +2000
Collin Morikawa +2000
Justin Thomas +2200
Matt Fitzpatrick +2200
Max Homa +2200
Sungjae Im +2200
Jason Day +2500
Sam Burns +3000
Tyrrell Hatton +3000
Rickie Fowler +3500
Sahith Theegala +4000
Tom Kim +4000
Tommy Fleetwood +4000