Some players are performing far too well after 10 games. Conversely, some players are performing far too poorly. Kind of reminds you of the stock market, doesn’t it?
Like the stock market, if given enough time, most players will put up their expected production.
The large increases or decreases certain players are experiencing now can, in most cases, be logically explained by outside factors. These factors include an injury to a teammate, an injury to themselves, a new coach, chemistry with a star linemate, etc. With 70 to 75 games left, there is plenty of time for players to revert to where they should be. You have already seen the Anaheim stars (Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and Teemu Selanne) get back on track. Here are some others who will see a “market correction.”
Alexander Semin – He has an upside in the high-80s and it is nice to see last year’s problems are behind him - he hasn’t lost a step, as many feared. However, his 146-point pace is unreasonable, to put it mildly.
Mikko Koivu – I don’t like raising my upside of players, because by definition it is the player’s projected career peak. But it does happen occasionally and I have raised the younger Koivu’s upside to 80 points from 70. Still, he won’t get the 118 points he is on pace for.
Brandon Dubinsky – His correction has already begun, with five points in his past eight games slowing his pace down to the mid-70s. He’ll keep dwindling until he finishes the season with 65.
Andy McDonald, Zach Parise, Patrick Sharp – 80 points is reasonable, but 109 points (their current pace) is not, although Parise could see as many as 90 this year.
Filip Kuba – No, he won’t finish with 90 points. That would more than double his career high. Reaching his career high is within reach, however.
Sam Gagner – I can’t see him finishing with just 10 points, can you? The Oilers haven’t played a lot of games and they haven’t been scoring in the ones they have played. This will change and the likes of Gagner, Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky and others will put up the numbers expected from them.
Petr Sykora – He is a notorious slow starter and this campaign is no different. In another month or so he will really start to roll.
Peter Mueller – While a sophomore slump is feasible, he won’t slide all the way back to 40 points. I think he’ll still build on last year’s numbers.
Ed Jovanovski – Eight games in and zero points. That will not last long.
Marty Turco – On pace for 20 to 25 wins, but do you really think that is where he will end up? The best is yet to come for Turco this season.
Eric Staal, Rod Brind’Amour and the rest of the Hurricanes - Will Staal lead this team with 65 points as the current pace dictates? No. Believe other Carolina players will get 60 points? This team will start rolling soon.
You will notice since we’re so few games into the season many of the underachievers are on the same team. The Oilers, the Hurricanes and the Coyotes are not scoring. Neither are the Kings, for that matter. Their times will come and when that happens, the stars (Shane Doan, Anze Kopitar, Staal and Hemsky) will put up big points and take their teammates along with them. The Blues’ offense is really rolling right now, but it will eventually slow and another team will take their spot.
Injuries, from a fantasy league perspective: Sidney Crosby may be suffering from a possible rib injury (the Penguins are calling it “undisclosed”), but he's scheduled to suit up against the Blues Saturday…With Rick DiPietro on the IR and Joey MacDonald “just okay,” it may be the time to take a flyer on Yann Danis. He could pull off a couple weeks of posting great numbers, although the Isles are not strong enough to sustain that pace. Still, for a third goalie on a fantasy squad, it could pay off for the short-term.
Farm Report: Buffalo prospect Nathan Gerbe is in his first professional season and is tied for second in the American League with seven goals in seven games. The diminutive forward has talent few can match, but his small stature (he is listed generously at 5-foot-6) kept him out of the NHL this year. It won’t keep him out for long, though.
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