Hulu May Be Growing Too Fast for Success
For 3 straight nights (Friday 2.16 – Sunday 2.18), Hulu experienced widespread log-in issues that prevented subscribers from viewing NBA All-Star Weekend and the 2018 Winter Games. The glitch on Sunday night occurred around 9p EST, the scheduled tip-off time for the All-Star Game (on TNT) and during NBC’s prime time Olympics coverage. It hasn’t been a strong month for the live streaming service; technical issues during the Super Bowl, including blank screens during the last 2 minutes, forced Hulu to offer one-month credits to those affected. No other live streaming service (i.e. DIRECTV Now, Sling TV or PlayStation Vue) reported issues during Sunday evening’s events.
Howie Long-Short: Research by the Boston Consulting Group indicates a striking correlation between revenue growth and company mortality (read about Compaq); in other words, the faster a company grows, the shorter its expected lifespan. Moderate growth is proven to be lower risk; Hulu is growing quickly (here’s a story headlined, “Does Hulu’s Rapid Growth Spell Trouble for Netflix and Amazon?”). While subscribers are up 41.6% (to 17 million) over the last 18 months, the company is now spending over $1 billion/year on advertising and lost $920 million in 2017 (up from $531 million in ’16). Losses are expected to increase 80% to $1.7 billion in ’18. CMCSA, FOXA, DIS & TWX will be investing another $1.5 billion into the company this year. Shareholders should be concerned about the cost of customer churn; companies that fail to deliver when most desired, don’t stay in business long.
Fan Marino: While on the topic of live streaming services, YouTube TV (GOOGL) announced it would be adding TNT, CNN, TBS, MLB Network and NBA TV to its service; while subsequently increasing the cost of the offering from $35 to $40 (note: Hulu’s 50 channel package is also $40). The average cost of a broadband plan in the United States is $66.17; tack on $40 for YouTube TV and you’re now paying over $100/mo. What exactly is “skinny” about that?
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