Baseball Prospectus' Breakout Hitters

Author:
SI Staff
Publish date:
Mar 28, 2007

Baseball Prospectus' Breakout Hitters

Conor Jackson, 1B, Diamondbacks

Hitters with the highest Breakout Rates for 2007, based on BP's PECOTA projections, which predicts performances based on comparisons with thousands of historical player-seasons. ''Breakout Rate'' is the chance that a hitter's overall offensive production will increase. (Rookies were excluded from this list.) 2007 PECOTA Projections: .294, 19 HRs, 76 RBIs Jackson, 25, managed just a .200 average and two home runs in a 40-game big league stint in 2005, but improved to .291 with 15 homers and 79 RBIs in a full season last year. PECOTA sees him as a consistent 20-homer, 80-RBI, .290 EqA producer in his prime. (Equivalent Average: a measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park and team pitching.)

Nick Markakis, RF Orioles

2007 PECOTA Projections: .290 BA, 15 HRs, 57 RBIs Markakis, 23, burst on the scene with a .291 average, 16 homers and 62 RBIs in 147 games as a rookie for Baltimore last season, and PECOTA thinks he's here to stay, with a five-year forecast in the .290/15/70 range.

Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins

2007 PECOTA Projections: .289 BA, 15 HRs, 61 RBIs The Red Sox will likely regret dealing this 23-year-old phenom, who made a splash with a .292 batting average, 17 homers and 51 stolen bases in his first big league season. PECOTA says those numbers will prove to be no fluke.

Bobby Crosby, SS, A's

2007 PECOTA Projections: .255 BA, 13 HRs, 53 RBIs Injuries have limited the 27-year-old to 18 homers and 78 RBIs over the past two seasons, but PECOTA predicts relatively solid production this year (.265 EqA) in a conservative 462 plate appearances (he had 623 in his breakout 22-homer season of 2004).

Jose Lopez, 2B, Mariners

2007 PECOTA Projections: .279 BA, 12 HRs, 62 RBIs Lopez, 23, took a big step forward in his first full major league season, upping his batting average from .247 to .282 with 10 home runs and 79 RBIs in 655 plate appearances. PECOTA thinks he can maintain that level of production and even increase his power and stolen base numbers (five last season).

Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks

2007 PECOTA Projections: .287 BA, 22 HRs, 78 RBIs Drew hit .316 with five homers and 23 RBIs in his first major-league stint, but struck out 50 times in 226 plate appearances while drawing just 14 walks. PECOTA projects the 24-year-old to develop into a steady 20-homer, 80-RBI producer with an OBP in the .350 range.

Adam Dunn, LF, Reds

2007 PECOTA Projections: .267 BA, 40 HRs, 102 RBIs How can a guy who hit 40 home runs and drove in 92 runs get better? By improving his batting average, for one (.234 last year). And by continuing to draw walks (PECTOA projects the 27-year-old to retain his power over the next three seasons while still racking up 90-100 free passes a year).

Andy Marte, 3B, Indians

2007 PECOTA Projections: .249 BA, 20 HRs, 71 RBIs The 23-year-old Marte struggled last year in his first taste of the big leagues: five homers, 23 RBIs and a .226 batting average in 50 games. PECOTA doesn't see much hope for him being much more than a .250 hitter, but projects him as a solid 20-homer, 70-80-RBI producer through the 2011 season.

Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers

2007 PECOTA Projections: .292 BA, 28 HRs, 92 RBIs PECOTA predicts a 21-point increase in batting average and a 16-point jump in EqA for the 23-year-old Fielder, as well as consistent power and RBI numbers over the next five seasons.

Jeff Francoeur, RF, Braves

2007 PECOTA Projections: .288 BA, 24 HRs, 80 RBIs PECOTA actually predicts a dip in power and RBIs for Francoeur, who had 29 homers and 103 RBIs last season, but a big jump in batting average (.260 last year) and on-base percentage (from .293 to .330). Don't forget, he's still only 23. If you're in a fantasy keeper league, Francoeur is a prime target: PECOTA projects him as a solid .300 BA, 30-HR, 100-RBI man well into his prime years.