The Best Prospect the A's Can Get For Sean Murphy
The last couple of weeks there have been loads of rumors swirling around Sean Murphy and the Oakland A's, and on Wednesday night Jon Morosi of MLB Network said that he could be dealt by the end of the Winter Meetings.
Inside the A's has covered every rumor and put together numerous trade packages in exchange for Sean Murphy, but which prospect that has been put in one of those trades is the best of the bunch? Which prospect could be wearing green and gold in just a week's time?
Before we dive right in, the teams we're talking about are the Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, St. Louis Cardinals, Cleveland Guardians, and the Chicago White Sox. All five of those teams have reportedly checked in with the A's on Murphy, so that is where we're focusing.
The top two fits in a potential trade seem to be Cleveland, who really didn't get much offensively from the catcher position in 2022 and is looking to bring in some bats this winter, and St. Louis, who are looking to fill a giant Hall of Fame sized hole behind the dish with Yadier Molina retiring.
Yesterday I wrote about the package that Locked on Guardians host Jeff Ellis proposed, and boy was it a solid package. Guardians fans weren't terribly thrilled, and we've seen the same debate happen again, where fans are questioning why a career .236 hitter would be worth more than a bag of beans.
The main reason is that the players he was compared to in 2022 all make at least $20M more than him. He's also a gold glove caliber defender and comes with three years of team control. It's going to cost a lot to land Sean Murphy.
The Guardians' package was highlighted by 22-year-old George Valera, a lefty bat that roams right field. He's already gotten a taste of Triple-A and is a consensus top 100 prospect. In terms of need, the A's could sure use someone exactly like him. He hit .250 with a .357 OBP and 24 home runs in 2022, primarily playing in Double-A. His strikeout rate hovered between 25-26% at both stops.
In contention with him from the same deal would be shortstop Brayan Rocchio, another consensus top 100 prospect. Rocchio turns 22 in January, and also made it to Triple-A in 2022, batting .257 with a .336 OBP and 18 home runs, largely at Double-A. He has a career 18.6% strikeout rate in four pro seasons.
Rocchio is a solid player with a lot of upside, but the A's have been high on Nick Allen in the past. If Allen develops at his usual rate, his bat should take a step forward in 2023. The A's also have Zack Gelof waiting in the wings as a potential second or third baseman. Because of this, and the fact that Cleveland fans seemed less willing to give up Valera than anyone else that was mentioned, Valera is the best player in the proposed deal.
St. Louis' package is another interesting one, and since publishing, I talked to Locked on Cardinals host J.D., and he has really come around on trading Masyn Winn in order to land Sean Murphy. The rest of the deal has some intriguing names, but Winn was the headliner.
Winn has a cannon of an arm at short, and at just 20 years old he already spent most of last season in Double-A. There is some concern about his ability to pull high heaters, particularly MLB caliber ones, but he has a lot of tools for a fan base to dream on. He could be a superstar, or he may not put it together. HIs ceiling is tantalizing, though.
Tampa Bay makes a lot of sense as a trade partner, because much like the last two teams, they have prospect depth that they can pull from, and like the Guardians, they tend to like good players that don't cost a lot financially.
It's hard to pinpoint who the best player in this deal could be. I mentioned both Jonathan Aranda and Kyle Manzardo as potential fits for this deal, though only one of them would be on the move. They're both high contact, decent power first basemen and FanGraphs has them rated #72 and #73 overall.
The highest ranked prospect that I mentioned in this deal was Junior Caminero at #60 overall. The one issue here is that he's a 19-year-old third baseman that has played 26 games in A Ball. He has a high ceiling and a lot of talent, but he's still pretty far away from making an impact at the big league level. Of the three players mentioned here, Caminero has the highest ceiling, but I don't know that I'd consider him the best player of the bunch just yet.
The White Sox are an interesting fit for Murph because everyone that hears them associated with the rumors says "wait, don't they have a catcher?" They do, indeed in Yasmani Grandal, but he's coming off a season where he hit just .201 with a .301 OBP and homered five times. An upgrade could be made behind the dish while moving Grandal to newly-vacant first base.
Some believe that Andrew Vaughn is more valuable than Sean Murphy on the trade market since he has one extra year of control, but he's not nearly the defender that the A's catcher is, though his bat is comparable. Vaughn would likely be the centerpiece of the trade since the A's have shown interest in him previously. The A's could also decide to switch it up and want Oscar Colás instead, then we could be talking about the Sox potentially having the best prospect available.
Colás is 24 years old, signed with the White Sox in January, and made it all the way up to Triple-A in his first year in pro ball. He hit at every stop along the way, including batting .306 with a .364 OBP and 14 homers in 51 games at Double-A.
The Red Sox would zag in my trade proposal, instead offering a pitcher as the main piece--and a pretty good one. One of Triston Casas or Brayan Bello would have to be part of this deal, and I chose the right-hander Bello. In his first big-league season in 2022, the 23-year-old held a 4.71 ERA in 13 games, 11 starts. He throws gas, averaging 97, and his changeup is a real swing-and-miss pitch.
It's hard to see the Red Sox parting with either player, so it's hard to say they're serious about acquiring Murphy, but hey, they asked.
So between Bello of the Red Sox, Colás of the White Sox, Caminero of the Rays, Winn of the Cardinals and Valera of the Guardians who would be the best prospect?
The cop out answer would be that it depends on what the A's are looking for.
No prospect is a sure thing, and this collection is no different. Each of them has question marks. Caminero or Winn may end up with the highest ceilings, but Valera may be the most "plus and play" prospect available, and from where I'm sitting, that makes him the best one available in these trade scenarios.