Dark-Horse Candidate to Replace Gavin Lux on Dodgers' Postseason Roster
Two days after Gavin Lux was promoted to the big club to stay on August 27, manager Dave Roberts said "the plan is to play him every day against right-handed pitchers; everyday guy going forward.”
That was a good plan. Kiké Hernandez has never hit righties well and wasn’t hitting at all at the time. And in Lux, this was the near-universal preseason favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year we were talking about here. The callup was overdue. It just didn't work out. The best laid plans of mice and men, right Vin?
Meanwhile, Kiké is hitting now (.304/.385/.652 over the last 14 days versus all comers) at the exact same time that Lux struggles on both sides of the ball. While he started opposite left-hander Adrián Morejón in San Diego Wednesday and against the Padres' righty Dinelson Lamet two days prior (hitless both times), Lux has been passed over in favor of Chris Taylor at second base more than once recently. And why not? Taylor is at .274/.374/.459, with six home runs and 24 RBIs on the season and.310/.396/.643, 4 HR, 10 RBIs in the last two weeks.
Lux is hitting .152/.250/.326 with two home runs and six RBIs in 2020 (with both homers and five of the RBIs coming in one game 10 days ago). Sure, that's a small sample size of 52 plate appearance, but if it's enough of a sample to think twice before writing his name on the lineup card, it’s enough to replace him before the NL playoffs start on September 30. To experiment at the very least.
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The 22-year-old’s defensive problems -- with throwing in particular -- are well-chronicled. He has three errors in just 12 starts so far in 2020, which translates to 40.5 in a 162-game season, and there have been unconverted double-plays that weren't scored as errors. He’s 0-8 lifetime as a pinch hitter and DH and doesn’t run well enough to pinch run. So what’s he doing here?
For the record, I am not anti-Lux. In fact, to the contrary, I lobbied for his promotion in this space well ahead of it becoming a reality. But this ain’t been bag. If there are intriguing options to replace him on the postseason roster, it’s time to make that call tout suite. And that would be now, to get that new man some reps.
I broached the topic in my first-look roster piece Monday and I’m taking it a step farther here. I’m convinced that Terrance Gore is going to appear out of left field (but not playing left field) as a burner -- a pinch runner. With a 28-man roster I’d be shocked if that doesn’t happen. And there’s room for Gore even without jettisoning Lux. In part because the DH is being used throughout 2020, there are few opportunities for pinch hitters.
There is also no little need for 15 pitchers. As I mentioned Monday, “in the last nine postseason series going back to the 2016 NLDS, L.A. has employed 12 pitchers nine times, 11 pitchers twice and nine pitchers once.”
So instead of a left-hand hitter who isn't performing to expectations and who plays a position that overflows with better all-around options (Hernandez, Taylor, Max Muncy), why not flip the script with a switch-hitting third catcher who's already a more compelling player than poor Austin Barnes?
Nov 3, 2018; Surprise, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Keibert Ruiz during the Arizona Fall League All Star Game at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Keibert Ruiz is that compelling player. Certainly, his sample size is microscopic (two hits in eight at big league bats), but he started behind the plate twice and homered in his first major league at bat. There is evidence of the club's faith in him.
Ruiz's presence on the roster would give Roberts the chance to replace Barnes in the few games that he should be allowed to start in the postseason. Those would be Clayton Kershaw's starts and only Clayton Kershaw's starts. The minute Kersh departs, Barnes should depart, because at that point the Dodgers will need the charge of a new battery. Both literally and figuratively. Equally as possible in those instances is the inserting of Will Smith into Barnes' spot with Ruiz remaining available for some other need.
Barnes played in previous Octobers because Yasmani Grandal couldn't hit or catch the baseball. But he wasn't winning any MVP awards with his lifetime .159/.235/.224 postseason mark (2-29 and .069 with 14 strikeouts in his last two postseasons).
A few days ago Barnes finally threw out his second runner attempting to steal this season, to give him a 12% caught stealing mark, which is half of the league average. He's nabbed 19% on his career; the league average over that time is 27%. Ruiz pegged 105 out of 316 would-be base stealers (33%) in his minor league career, at the ages of 15, 16, 17, 18 and 19.
The boy could throw as can the man. And he can play the position. And he can pinch hit versus left-handers and right. And postseason opponents will have next to nothing in terms a scouting report on him, if they have anything at all. And three catchers is a better October idea than six second basemen (Barnes plays the keystone too, as does Mookie Betts). And because Ruiz is in Denver with the Dodgers as we speak.
What's he doing there? Why not activate him tonight and give him a number of pinch hit opportunities by season's end? And catch him after the Dodgers clinch the division? Or before?
I've asked enough questions. I look forward to Andrew Friedman's answers. And yours.
And remember, glove conquers all.
Howard Cole has been writing about baseball on the internet since Y2K. Follow him on Twitter.
