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Dodgers at Astros Series Preview

Dodgers at Astros Series Preview

Editor's note: Given the news about the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Marlins organization Sunday and the postponement of both the Baltimore Orioles series at Miami and the New York Yankees at Philadelphia series (both of which were scheduled to begin Monday), let's acknowledge that the health of all affected is rightly top-of-mind throughout the baseball industry, and certainly at Inside the Dodgers. For the moment, however, we're going to continue to post Dodgers-related material while we wait to see how Major League Baseball responds, and on how news develops. Admittedly, we're uncomfortable about it.

The Marlins outbreak has cast an early, but not entirely unexpected, pall over the 2020 baseball season at the exact moment that teams are starting to travel and face their second regular season opponents. For the Dodgers, that means a trip to Houston for a two-game set against the Astros, the first games between the two teams since the Astros took two of three from the Dodgers, also in Houston, during the 2018 regular season. The teams are scheduled to play twice more at Dodger Stadium in September, but that feels impossibly far away right now.

The Dodgers and Astros were extremely evenly matched in 2017 and ’18. After the 2017 World Series, which went seven games and saw both teams score exactly 34 runs, their three-game set in 2018 saw both teams win a one-run game. What tipped the balance was the middle game, a flukey 14-0 blowout in which Houston torched three Dodgers pitchers who have since moved on, Kenta Maeda, John Axford, and Zac Rosscup.

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Although Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman have emerged as superstars and each team has had some notable turnover in the lineup, most notably Mookie Betts replacing Yasiel Puig in L.A. and Michael Brantley replacing Carlos Beltrán in Houston, what has changed most about the two since 2018 is the pitching. Of the 12 pitchers the Astros used in the 2017 World Series, just two, Lance McCullers Jr. and Chris Devenski, will be active for this series, but McCullers won’t start either of the games, and Devenski has a sore elbow and might not pitch in the series, either. With Alex Wood headed to the IL with shoulder inflammation (Josh Sborz will replace him on the active roster), the Dodgers also have just two active pitchers from the 2017 World Series, Ross Stripling, who won't start in this series, and Kenley Jansen.

Tuesday’s game was supposed to be the first ever matchup between future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, two other holdovers from the 2017 Fall Classic, but injuries have sidelined both. Kershaw was scratched from his Opening Day start and placed on the injured list due to a flare up of his chronically balky back. Verlander beat the Mariners on Opening Day, but has since landed on the IL with a forearm strain that will keep him out for a couple of weeks, at the very least.

The Astros are also without 2019 Rookie of the Year Yordan Álvarez, veteran righty reliever Joe Smith, swing man Brad Peacock, and compelling young right-hander José Urquidy, among others. Peacock has a sore shoulder. Smith has, unofficially, opted out of the season. The other two weren’t cleared for baseball activities until Friday and will need a few weeks to be ready for the season. The Astros haven’t given a reason for their delay, leaving us all to assume it was COVID-19-related. Meanwhile, righty set-up man Ryan Pressly is in the same sore-elbowed limbo as Devenski. Neither is on the IL, but both may be unavailable in this series, reducing the Astros bullpen to Roberto Osuna, Joe Biagini, and seven rookies.

As for those that remain, the Astros typical lineup against right-handed pitchers in the early going has looked like this:

R – George Springer (CF)

R – José Altuve (2B)

R – Alex Bregman (3B)

R – Michael Brantley (LF)

R – Yuli Gurriel (1B)

R – Carlos Correa (SS)

L – Josh Reddick (RF)

L – Kyle Tucker (DH)

R – Martín Maldonado (C)

And here are the projected pitching matchups:

Tue. 7/28, 6:10pm PDT: RHP Walker Buehler vs. LHP Framber Valdéz

Wed. 7/29, 4:10pm PDT: RHP Dustin May vs. Not Justin Verlander

Valdéz is a stocky, 26-year-old Dominican lefty with 13 starts and 21 relief appearances under his belt in the majors. He works primarily with a heavy, low-90s sinker and wicked, high-70s curve, also mixing in a slightly harder four-seamer and an upper-80s changeup. The sinker and curve generate a ton of ground balls, but he lacks the control that would properly complete his profile. Tuesday will mark his first start of 2020, and his first career start against the Dodgers.

The Dodgers are likely to see another unfamiliar pitcher in Wednesday’s game, though the Astros have yet to announce Verlander’s replacement. The most likely candidate appears to be Brandon Bielak, a 24-year-old righty who topped out at Triple-A last year and was called up when Verlander went on the IL. Whoever starts is likely to yield to a parade of relievers. He is also likely to be a pitcher the Dodgers haven’t seen before.

As for the Dodgers’ starters, Buehler, who will be making his season debut on Tuesday, threw four innings in a simulated game on Wednesday and will likely be limited to five frames on Tuesday night. For those who missed it, Buehler didn’t throw during the shutdown, for good reason, and thus entered camp behind the other starters. Similarly, while Dustin May was sharp on Opening Day, he came out after 60 pitches and likely won’t throw more than 80 on Wednesday night. The Astros will be the best lineup May has faced as a major league starter in what will he his sixth major-league start.

As for the Dodgers’ offense, which seemed to peter out over the weekend after racking up 17 runs in the first two games of the season, they could feast on the Astros inexperienced and underwhelming, young pitchers, or they could be stymied by their unfamiliarity. Either way, Howard and I would both like to see Dave Roberts make more use of his bench during games, pinch-hitting to gain the platoon advantage in relevant late-game situations. The only pinch-hitter Roberts used in the Dodgers two losses was Edwin Ríos. That came with one on, two out, and the Dodgers down by four in the bottom of the seventh inning on Saturday (Ríos, in his only at-bat thus far this season, struck out). In the Dodgers’ 3-1 loss on Sunday, lefties Joc Pederson, Ríos, and Matt Beaty (the last of whom was the only Dodger on the active 30-man roster not to appear in the Giants series) remained on the bench through a parade of righties against whom righties Chris Taylor, Kiké Hernández, and A.J. Pollock went a combined 1-for-7 with a walk and a double and four strikeouts.

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Cliff Corcoran covers baseball for The Athletic and is a former lead baseball writer for SI.com. The co-author or editor of 13 baseball books, including seven Baseball Prospectus annuals, he has also written for USA Today, SB Nation, Baseball Prospectus, Sports on Earth, The Hardball Times, and Boston.com, among others. He has been a semi-regular guest analyst on the MLB Network and can be heard more regularly on The Infinite Inning podcast with Steven Goldman. Follow Cliff on Twitter @CliffCorcoran.