Dodgers: Dave Roberts Alludes to Julio Urias Starting Game 1 of the NLDS
With the regular season completed, the Dodgers now have five days off before they kick off the National League Division Series on October 11. The first-round bye gives Los Angeles the luxury of setting up their postseason rotation exactly how they want it.
So how do they want it? Well, Dave Roberts isn't saying just yet, either because he and his staff haven't decided or (more likely) because he just doesn't think it's time for everyone to know.
He did give a little insight into the team's thinking, though. In previous years, there were two scheduled days off for travel during the Division Series, after Games 2 and 4. This year, because of the expanded playoffs and the later end to the regular season due to the lockout, the travel day after Game 4 has been eliminated. As Bill Plunkett reports in the Orange County Register, that's L.A.'s main consideration in determining who will start Game 1.
“Just to give you a little peek behind the curtain, it’s more of who we feel is best to potentially come back on regular rest in Game 5,” Roberts said Wednesday. “It’s not opponent-driven, it’s certainly not talent-driven, it’s kind of where we feel puts us in the best spot. That’s all I’ll say about that.”
"Regular rest" means four days off between starts. With Game 1 on October 11 and Game 5 on October 16, whoever starts Game 1 will be on regular rest to start Game 5. The thing about the Dodgers, though, is "regular rest" isn't very regular for them. Of their 162 games this season, just 45 were started by a pitcher on four days rest, with 69 starts on five days and 45 on six days or more. (Yes, that only adds up to 159; the other three games were started by relievers on shorter rest.)
So, does the regular rest thing point to either Kershaw or Urias? It's hard to tell. Kershaw made six of his 22 starts (27.3%) on regular rest this year; for Urias, it was 8 of 31 (25.8%). Urias wins in raw numbers, Kershaw wins in percentage.
But let's look at how they did in those games. In Julio's eight starts on four days rest, he posted a 2.35 ERA in 46 innings. For Kershaw, it was a 4.06 ERA in 31 innings over six starts. Even if you throw out the start in Colorado, the 2.67 ERA still makes it his worst split and worse than Urias.
Of course, the best answer is simply to beat the Mets or Padres in three or four games, with Urias and Kershaw ready to come back and start Games 1 and 2 of the NLCS. But if it comes down to Game 5, it seems like starting Urias in Game 1 is the winning play here.
