Figuring Out the Wild Playoff Race in the American League

The Cleveland Indians start play Monday with just 20 games remaining in this COVID abbreviated season. And they are in the midst of a pennant race, or are they?

Currently, the Tribe is a half game behind the Chicago White Sox, who sit in first place and they are up a game on Minnesota for second place.

With eight teams in the American League making the playoffs, it would be shocking in all three Central Division leaders didn’t advance to the post-season. 

There are no first round byes, so the trio is playing for playoff seeding and right now, the Sox would take on the Yankees, the Indians would get the Houston Astros, and Twins would take on Oakland.

Chicago and Cleveland would be designated as the home team for each game of the first round, best of three set, because the Indians have the edge by percentage points over Minnesota, and would be designated as the Central Division’s second place team, with the Twins getting a wild card position.

Of course, the lack of separation between the three teams make this situation very fluid. By the end of today, the Indians could be the 7th seed as a wild card, or the third seed as division leader.

Cleveland has a three game series at Target Field next weekend against the Twins, and host a four game set vs. the Pale Hose the last week of the season. The Tribe is currently 3-4 vs. Minnesota and are 4-2 against the Sox.

The White Sox host the Twins for a four game set, after the Tribe plays Rocco Baldelli’s squad, and of course, has the four game set in Cleveland, while the Twins have seven straight games vs. the other two contenders, followed by three against the NL Central leading Cubs.

We will know a lot about the Twins after that potentially brutal 10-game stretch.

Within the three teams, the young White Sox have fared the worst so far, going 4-8 against the other two top teams in the Central. They have dominated everyone else, going 20-7 against the rest of the schedule.

Minnesota has fared the best, going 8-5 in games between the three squads, with Cleveland being 5-6.

Chicago has ridden their offense so far, ranking second in the AL in runs scored per game at 5.26. But in six games against the Cleveland pitching staff, they’ve scored just 17 tallies, and that’s just 2.8 per contest.

The Twins have had a lot of injuries to date, which has hurt their highly touted offense. They’ve had Josh Donaldson for just 11 games and catcher Mitch Garver for just 17, so they rank just 11th in runs scored per game at 4.38.

FYI, the Indians average just 4.18 runs/game.

Against, the Tribe, Minnesota has scored only 18 runs in seven contests. That’s 2.6 per game.

So, while the AL Central top tier will probably all make it to October, that doesn’t mean the games aren’t important. Having the opportunity to bat last in the first three games during the post-season is important.

As for the overall AL post-season raced, it’s not much of one. Currently, Baltimore and Detroit are the first two teams looking in, and they are both three games behind the eighth spot, with Seattle four games out. With only between 20-25 games remaining, that will be tough to make up.

Both of those squads are below .500, so the Indians need to only win six games to probably be in, while we figure around 35-25 will get you home field for the first round. To do that, Cleveland needs to go 11-10 the rest of the way.

The bigger thing to watch for the Tribe is how they play against the Twins, Cubs, and White Sox coming down the stretch. Those are the best team remaining on the schedule.

We know Cleveland can beat the likes of Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Detroit, but they are 5-8 against the three teams mentioned before (meaning they are 19-7 against everyone else).

It’s not September baseball as we know it because of the expanded playoff system. Can you imagine the excitement about the division race, under the normal format? 

Because likely one and perhaps, two teams could be left out, and the wild card teams would have just the one game to get to the Division Series.

Still, the Tribe has questions. Can their hitting survive games where better pitchers are facing them? Can the bullpen remain solid? Can they find some production out of the outfield?

That’s the reason to watch these last 21 games, even if it seems the Indians will qualify for the playoffs.