The Indians Could Need Nolan Jones in 2020
Blocked at third base by José Ramírez, Cleveland Indians top prospect Nolan Jones found himself amid many trade rumors over the past year. At one of the positions the team did not need immediately, and in the middle of a breakout season, Jones was a sensible inclusion in any optimistic deal to add a veteran.
With the acquisition of César Hernández, Jones is back in a similar position, blocked by Ramírez, and money tied up at second base, holding Ramírez at the hot corner.
On Tuesday, MLB Pipeline named Jones the third-best third base prospect in the game, labeling him a 30-homer threat down the line. For a team barreling towards the end of one competitive cycle, such an asset would likely play better in the future than as a trade piece in the short term.
So how long can Indians fans plan to wait before they see their next big thing? Not long, relatively speaking, as many outlets like Pipeline project Jones to appear at some point in the 2020 season.
Excelling from High-A to Double-A in 2019, Jones will need to replicate his results consistently to get a big-league look in 2020. The plan is for the 21-year-old to stay at third long-term, making the transition from shortstop as an amateur. Without consistent growth on the corner, Jones’ career could be stifled by a move to first base or a corner outfield spot.
Jones could have been ready for a move from Double-A to Triple-A to start the season based on his offensive production alone, but UCL surgery to end his fall campaign also put an end to that remote possibility.
So what would it take to see Jones in an Indians uniform in 2020? On the field, the growth defensively is likely the biggest factor. The bat may not be completely ready, but his plate control could help him hold his own right away. Steamer projects Jones would have the 6-best WAR (1.7) among Indians position players, plate appearances all equal at 600 apiece, but doing so with a 92 wRC+ and .736 OPS.
If the defense improves, and the bat holds strong, Jones would have a decent chance at a September call up. Even that comes with a caveat, as teams will only be allowed a 28-man roster in September 2020, meaning Jones will have to be worth using service time.
Injuries happen, so there is a chance Jones is needed well before September. Even if Ramírez went down for an extended period, the first shot would be given to Christian Arroyo or Yu Chang, depending on who breaks camp with the club. If it were Hernández who went down, Arroyo is capable of playing up the middle, with Francona-favorite Ernie Clement waiting in the wings. The team could pepper in a few minor-league veterans before the end of Spring Training, further buffering from Jones’ debut.
Not to say that Jones could not play himself above that group, or alternately, they play the farmhand up themselves. The odds are against Jones being a significant piece for the Indians this season, which is what the club probably wishes anyway. Yet it stands to reason that things could go wrong enough that the parties are forced together early.
