Cleveland Baseball Insider's 2023 Guardians Top 50 Prospects, No. 48 1B Joe Naranjo
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As the future of the organization prepares for a new year and spring training to begin, there’s no better time to bring you the Cleveland Baseball Insiders top 50 prospects for the upcoming 2023 season.
The Guardians are widely regarded as having one of the deepest and top farm systems in all of baseball. So deep, in fact, that it was very difficult to trim the list down to just 50 players I think could have an impact at the MLB level. I probably could easily have ended up listing 75 or more players.
I am implementing the Fangraphs future value grading scale which you will be able to locate under each player video. Future Value is a grade on the 20-80 scale that maps to anticipated annual WAR production during the player’s first six years of service.
My rankings are based off seeing the players live, watching video and having conversations with other evaluators and writers. While prospect lists are fun and entertaining for fans, they are not an end-all-be-all in terms of who make it eventually to the major leagues. Remember, Jose Ramirez was never a top 100 prospect nationally and Oscar Gonzalez wasn't even a top 20 prospect in the Guardians organization.
The ultimate goal here is to inform our readers and give you information on some of the young talent in the organization that they can follow and look forward to seeing in the future at the MLB level.
No. 48 Joe Naranjo - 1B
2022 Stats
Bio
Cleveland Guardians first-base prospect Joe Naranjo made his pro-debut in 2019 after being drafted in the third round out of Senator Ruben S. Ayala High School in Chino Hills, California. He played in 48 games in the Arizona Rookie League in 2019 hitting for a .266 AVG with a .345 OBP and a .678 OPS.
After the 2020 minor league season was canceled Cleveland aggressively had Naranjo skip Low-A ball and had him start the 2021 season with High-A Lake County. He was the youngest position player to start the year in the Midwest League in 2021 not having turned 20-years-old until a week after the season began.
Naranjo's youth definitely showed as he struggled especially driving the ball in 2021 hitting just 20 extra base hits. He only managed six home runs while posting a .088 ISO over 109 games for Lake County. He finished the year posting a disappointing .648 OPS to go along with a wRC+ of just 84.
2022 Season
Naranjo got off to a tremendous start this year back repeating at the High-A level with Lake County. Over the first two months of the season covering 40 games, he hit for a .252 average with an impressive .913 OPS. He had 17 extra base hits including nine home runs posting a .518 slugging percentage. Naranjo also walked 30 times in his first 40 games posting a .395 on-base percentage.
From June through September his numbers dropped off some as he finished the season hitting .234 with a .716 OPS over his final 85 games. Naranjo had just 20 extra base hits over this time frame compared to the 17 he had in half the games over the first two months seeing his slugging percentage drop significantly to just .360 over the final four months. One positive note was he was still able to draw 56 walks over the final 85 games leading to .356 on-base percentage despite the decreased production.
Overall, there was some real positive signs for Naranjo in 2022. Though his average remained exactly the same from 2021 at .235 on the season he did triple his home run production going from six last year to 18 this year. His extra base production nearly doubled going from 20 in 2021 to 37 in 2022 which led to an increase in ISO from .088 to .179 and SLG from .324 to .414.
Naranjo also saw a dramatic increase in the amount of walks he drew from 44 last year to 82 in 2022 seeing his on-base percentage increase by 40 points from .324 to .364 and BB% from 10.3% to 16.0%. The most telling sign for Naranjo showing he improved dramatically at the High-A level in 2022 was his wRC+ jumped from 84 all the way to 120 with the score of 100 being average.
Scouting Report
Naranjo has a short compact swing and use the whole field. He has very quick hands which allow him to handle most pitches in and out of the zone and keep counts alive. He has a very good eye and will work and draw walks. Coming into 2022 he had showed below average power but increased his profile to now feature average to slightly above average power something he will need to repeat and increase most likely if he stays at first base if he doesn't hit for average.
Naranjo is an average runner but good speed for a first baseman featuring good range. He’s a solid defender with strong footwork and instincts around the bag. He has a solid arm for a first baseman as he was a part-time pitcher in high school.
2023 and Future Outlook
Naranjo most likely begins the 2023 season with a promotion to Double-A Akron. He will still be considered young for the level not turning 22 until 5/11/23. Naranjo's increase in power production as well as his improved walk rate will need to follow him to Double-A and beyond if he wants to make it to the MLB level. He could increase his prospect profile even more if he was able to hit for higher average than his career .241 number. If he continues to develop his offensive game, he could possibly make his MLB debut sometime in 2024.
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