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Does Vierling Fit in the Philadelphia Phillies' Leadoff Spot Going Forward?

Philadelphia Phillies manager Rob Thomson switched things up on Sunday, batting Matt Vierling in the leadoff spot instead of Kyle Schwarber.

Author:
Leo Morgenstern
Jul 25, 2022 3:45 PM EDT

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Philadelphia Phillies

The leadoff spot has given the Philadelphia Phillies some trouble in recent seasons.

Conventional wisdom dictates that a leadoff hitter should be good at getting on-base, so that those hitting behind him can drive him in. A leadoff hitter should also be one of the better hitters on the team, because he is going to get more plate appearances than anyone else.

Last season, Phillies leadoff hitters had a .302 on-base percentage, worst in the National League. Their .706 OPS was second-worst behind only the Colorado Rockies. That's sub-optimal, to say the least.

This year, things have been better with All-Star Kyle Schwarber getting the majority of starts in the leadoff spot.

But while Schwarber has hit well this year, he has still not been a perfect leadoff hitter. His .313 OBP is merely average, and well below his career norm. His biggest strength has been hitting home runs, a skill better suited to the three or four hole in the lineup.

Schwarber has been slumping of late too. He has just four hits in his last 55 plate appearances.

So on Sunday, Rob Thomson decided to try something different. For the first time in his tenure as Phillies manager, he started someone other than Schwarber at the top of the lineup: Matt Vierling.

Vierling batted leadoff four times in 2021, going 4-for-13 with a home run, but he had yet to hit in the spot this season. He went 0-for-4 as Philadelphia lost to Chicago 4-3.

Despite his poor showing on Sunday, Vierling was a good choice for the top spot in the lineup with a left-hander on the mound. The 25-year-old has a .348 OBP and 114 wRC+ against southpaws this season. Since he was recalled from the minors on in mid June, those numbers are even better.

Since June 7, Vierling's .361 OBP and 133 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers both rank fourth on the team (min. 30 PA). In each category, he is trailing Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm, and J.T. Realmuto.

Hoskins is not an ideal leadoff hitter because, like Schwarber, he hits for power and so is better suited to the middle of the order. Bohm, similarly, profiles better as a middle-of-the-order bat because he puts the ball in play so often and therefore should hit in a spot where he can drive more runners in.

Realmuto has outperformed Vierling against southpaws lately, and so might have been the better choice to hit atop the order against the left-handed Drew Smyly, but he was given the day off.

Thus, Vierling was a only fit as the leadoff hitter on Sunday, and Thomson was smart to shake things up, even if it did not work out so well on this particular occasion.

Going forward, however, it might be Realmuto — and not Vierling — who makes most sense to hit leadoff against lefties.

After getting off to a slow start, the Phillies catcher has been outstanding lately. Over the past month, he has been one of the best hitters on the team, and his .382 OBP in that time would have been very valuable atop the lineup.

While Realmuto has mostly hit in the middle of the order during his time in Philadelphia, he has leadoff experience in his career. In 208 plate appearances as the first batter in the order, his OBP is an impressive .351. Only three teams have gotten a better OBP from their leadoff hitters this season.

Realmuto also makes sense in the leadoff spot because he does not have huge platoon splits. Throughout his career, he has been almost as good against right-handers as he has been against left-handers. Vierling is a great choice to bat leadoff with a lefty on the mound, but once that starter comes out of the game and is replaced with a right-handed reliever, it will become clear why Realmuto is the better choice.

Vierling fit well in the leadoff spot yesterday, with Schwarber slumping and Realmuto taking some time off. In the future, it remains to be seen whether he will return to the top of the order.

Still, no matter what the lineup looks like in the coming days, it is a good sign that Thomson trusted Vierling enough to give him this opportunity. Unless Dave Dombrowski works some magic and brings in a new center fielder at the trade deadline, the Phillies will be counting on Vierling to contribute offensively down the stretch. Here's hoping he can do just that.