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Who's gonna beat 'em?

In order of the level of threat they pose to New England's march to history, here's how we break down the Patriots' looming AFC postseason opponents (and no, we didn't forget that Bill Belichick and Co. have to finish things up next Saturday night with a date against the Giants in the Meadowlands):

• Heat index: If it's possible for the defending Super Bowl champion to fly under the radar screen, the Colts have somehow done this in the season's second half, beginning with their two-game losing streak in Weeks 9-10. But Indy has very quietly won six in a row since that last-second loss at San Diego; and on Sunday at home against Houston, the Colts scored on six of their eight possessions, rolled up a season-high 458 yards of offense, tied a franchise record with 33 first downs and scored 38 consecutive points at one point.

• Intangible: More than any other Patriots opponent, the Colts can rely on muscle memory when it comes to beating New England. Before losing in Week 9 to the Patriots at home, Indy had beaten them three consecutive times in the series, including regular-season wins at Gillette Stadium in both 2005 and 2006. More so than any other Patriots playoff foe, the Colts do not fear a trip to Foxboro in the dead of winter.

• Potential trouble-maker: He has missed the past nine games with that troublesome bruised knee; but when he comes back to Indy's lineup, Marvin Harrsion adds a Hall of Fame threat to the Colts' offense. His presence also discourages defenses from double-teaming fellow receiver Reggie Wayne and opens up more room in the middle of the field for tight end Dallas Clark.

• Upset probability: 45 percent -- The Colts are playoff tested, superbly coached and would enter any game against New England secure in the knowledge they could have very easily beaten the Patriots in early November, were it not for a lousy 10-minute stretch of the fourth quarter.

• Heat index: Since losing 29-7 at home to division-winning Indianapolis in Week 7, the Jags are 7-2. Jacksonville is 4-1 in its last five games, with the red-hot offense averaging 35.2 points per game. By comparison, the Patriots are 5-0 in their past five games but averaging just 28 points per game -- or a touchdown less than the Jags. Jacksonville has topped 400 yards of offense in all five of those games, a team record streak, and its 49 points against Oakland on Sunday was good for another franchise record.

• Intangible: This isn't the Jaguars' first blush of success. Jacksonville is an impressive 40-23 since the start of 2004, the NFL's sixth-best record during that span. In addition, the Jaguars are in the playoffs for the second time in three years, having lost 28-3 at New England in 2005's first round. They looked like a playoff newbie in that game, but that experience would undoubtedly help them prepare for the Gillette atmosphere, if they earn a return trip.

• Potential trouble-maker:Fred Taylor is running like a man possessed. Taylor had 111 yards on just seven carries against Oakland on Sunday, including a 62-yard touchdown burst on the first play from scrimmage. It was his fifth consecutive 100-yard rushing game, his best such streak since 2000. If the Patriots defense has had a weak link of late, it has come against the run, with Baltimore's Willis McGahee gouging them for 138 yards three weeks ago and Miami gaining 108 yards on 22 carries (4.9 average) on Sunday. Jacksonville has topped 200 yards rushing two weeks in a row and cleared 150 yards on the ground eight times this season.

• Upset probability: 35 percent -- The Jaguars are a physical, tough-minded team that rarely beats itself with offensive mistakes and has the ability to wear down an opponent as the game unwinds. With a two-headed power running game that's led by Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville is a very dangerous opponent for a Patriots defense that can have trouble with opponents who pound away on the ground.

• Heat index: The Chargers take a four-game winning streak into their Monday date with visiting Denver, and San Diego is 8-2 since starting the season with a sky-is-falling 1-3 record. After losing four of its first five road games, San Diego has won consecutive games away from home, which at least bodes well for a club that will probably enter the playoffs with a No. 4 seed. The Chargers have finally begun to fire all their offensive guns, and that 51-spot they hung on Detroit last week could be the start of a season-ending scoring burst.

• Intangible: San Diego has all the motivation it'll ever need if its postseason brings them to Foxboro. It was the Patriots, of course, who ended the Chargers dream season of 2006, upsetting the AFC's top-seeded team in the divisional round. San Diego went down mostly by its own hand, but it was one of the most bitter losses in franchise history; and the memory of the Patriots dancing on the Chargers' logo still rankles everyone who wears the lightning bolt.

• Potential trouble-maker: Nobody took San Diego's playoff defeat harder than running back LaDainian Tomlinson, who had his MVP season rendered rather empty by that loss. Tomlinson is one of the league's truly great players, and great players usually get their revenge on the field, doing great things in the process. It's hard to imagine the Chargers knocking off the vaunted Patriots without a monster game from L.T.

• Upset probability: 33 percent -- San Diego offered New England little competition in Week 2, losing 38-14 in Foxboro. But that was then, and this would be now. The Chargers began a three-week descent into disarray with that game, but they've been at least a reasonable facsimile of their 2006 selves in the past month, beating their last four opponents by an average of 19 points.

• Heat index: Before finding their footing somewhat with a 41-24 win at St. Louis on Thursday night, the Steelers seemed to be stumbling toward the postseason. They had been handled easily by the Patriots at Gillette in Week 14 and then went home for a humbling at the hands of Jacksonville in Week 15. Even against the Rams there was trouble, if you cared to look for it. Pittsburgh's defense was shredded at times, and the Steelers continue to have trouble in pass protection, watching as Ben Roethlisberger was sacked four more times. Even worse, Pittsburgh lost the NFL's leading rusher, Willie Parker, to a season-ending broken leg.

• Intangible: The Steelers are another team that won't crumble because the pressure gets to them in playoffs against the Patriots. The vast majority of their roster won a Super Bowl just two years ago, and three of those wins occurred on the road. All told, have you noticed that five of the last six Super Bowl champions are in the AFC playoff field this year?

• Potential trouble maker: The postseason is all about who has the hot quarterback, and Roethlisberger has had a hugely underappreciated season. With three more touchdown passes against the Rams, he's thrown for 32 scores this season, with just 11 interceptions. His 65.3 completion percentage and 104.1 passer rating cannot be discounted, even though he didn't play particularly well against New England two weeks ago (187 yards passing, one touchdown, no interceptions).

• Upset probability: 20 percent -- The Steelers have twice lost at home to New England in AFC title games this decade, so predicting a road upset in the playoffs is a reach for me. They're a better team than they've looked in recent games, but losing big to the Patriots in Week 14 seems to have cost them some of their swagger.

• Heat index: The Browns lost control of their playoff fate with that 19-14 upset loss at Cincinnati and need the Colts to beat the Titans next week in Indianapolis to vault over Tennessee for the No. 6 seed. The problem is, Indy has locked up the No. 2 and has little to play for against the Titans. Cleveland had won four of its past five before the loss to the Bengals, but that momentum was wasted.

• Intangible: Third-year Browns coach Romeo Crennel served as Belichick's defensive coordinator in New England and won three Super Bowl rings with the little genius. He had the Browns fairly well prepared for what the Patriots like to do in a Week 5 trip to Foxboro this year, even though Cleveland eventually lost, 34-17.

• Potential trouble-maker: With 15 touchdown receptions and more than 1,200 yards receiving, Braylon Edwards has become a game-changing force this season. The Patriots could put No. 1 cornerback Asante Samuel on him, but tight end Kellen Winslow is another 1,000-yard receiving threat in Cleveland's arsenal.

• Upset probability: 12 percent -- The Patriots are 8-0 at home in the playoffs in the Belichick era, and you can't like the chances of the Browns -- who would in effect be first-time playoff qualifiers -- to be the team to end that perfect streak. No matter what they say, the Browns might just be happy to be in the postseason.

• Heat index: After a three-game losing streak seemingly doomed them, dropping to 6-5 past midseason, the Titans have rallied with three wins in their past four games. But Tennessee's offense has been unimpressive, scoring 17 points or less four times in seven games. If they can beat the Colts in Indy next week, the Titans' comeback will signify franchise's first playoff berth since 2003.

• Intangible: Whoever beats the Patriots almost certainly will do so in part because they got to quarterback Tom Brady with the pass rush. The Titans can generate some serious pass pressure, as they showed against the Jets again on Sunday, sacking Chad Pennington six times.

• Potential trouble-maker: With a 103-yard game against the Jets on Sunday, LenDale White topped the 1,000-yard rushing plateau for the first time in his two-year career (he has 1,063 with a game to play). White is a handful whose downhill running style could give the Patriots defense fits on a cold day in Foxboro.

• Upset probability: 8 percent -- While quarterback Vince Young can pose a unique set of problems for a defense, Tennessee's offense likely lacks the firepower to put enough scoring drives together to beat the Patriots. It would take Young's most productive game of the season -- and probably some scoring help on either defense or special teams.

**NOTE: Only five of the six above teams can qualify for the AFC playoffs. As of right now, Cleveland and Tennesee are tied for the No. 6 slot.