If stiffed, Big Ten and Boise will be reaping what they've sown

Unless something wacky happens in the next few weeks, some unlucky BCS-conference team is going to get stiffed come Dec. 6.

We're conditioned to accept that an undefeated TCU or Boise State will be left out of the national title mix because they weren't members when the BCS cartel was created in 1998. We'll be a little more surprised if an undefeated Big East team (Cincinnati) gets left out, and quite a bit more surprised if an undefeated Big Ten team (Iowa) does.

In fact, the programs expecting to get stiffed have already mounted propaganda campaigns in an effort to avoid that fate. In Iowa's case, the campaign is quite convincing. The headline on the football page of the Iowa athletic department's Web site reads "Get the correct facts about Iowa football," and the page contains the following persuasive nuggets: Iowa leads the nation in vanquished opponents with winning records (six). The teams Iowa has beaten on the road boast a combined 23-12 record. Iowa has beaten three opponents (Arizona, Penn State, Wisconsin) ranked in the current BCS Top 25. Texas has beaten two (Oklahoma and Oklahoma State), Florida has beaten one (LSU) and Alabama has beaten one (Virginia Tech).

The problem is Iowa still doesn't pass the eyeball test, which is why computers -- which don't have eyeballs -- love the Hawkeyes more than the human voters. Of course, if college football used even a plus-one system, the Hawkeyes wouldn't have to worry about impressing eyeballs. Either Alabama or Florida will lose once, so an undefeated Iowa probably would finish third in the BCS standings. In a plus-one, the Hawkeyes would face the SEC or Big 12 champ for a berth in the BCS title game.

But let's not forget who threw up the tallest roadblock to the plus-one when SEC commissioner Mike Slive and ACC commissioner John Swofford proposed it in 2008. That's right. The Big Ten.

If Iowa gets shut out of the title game, the Hawkeyes need not complain in the media. They should just call their conference office.

Further down in the rankings, I must apologize to TCU, LSU and Penn State, which all fell one place because of Oregon's win over USC. To bring the Ducks into the middle of the top 10, I had to elevate Boise State, which has a better record and a head-to-head win against Oregon. I'm still not sure Boise State should be ranked that high, but I have to respect the head-to-head victory.

The Broncos rolled the dice with their schedule this season, betting on Oregon to roll to an 11-win record and filling the rest of the slate with slop. The computer polls may keep Boise State from cashing in, though. As long as TCU keeps winning, the Horned Frogs won't drop below the Broncos. TCU will go to a BCS bowl, and Boise State will celebrate its WAC title in the Humanitarian Bowl. The computers, which value schedule strength above all else, probably would select Boise State if the Broncos had just one more BCS-conference team on their schedule.

And so, this season could well end in the same lesson for Boise State and Iowa: You reap what you sow.

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