The Clippers didn't find many leads to extend in beating the Grizzlies in seven games, but they seemed to discover the grit they'll need to have any chance of tripping up the Spurs' well-oiled machine. Part of that comes from grinding out physical, often-ugly wins over a solid Memphis defense. But more of it comes from Chris Paul, Caron Butler and Kenyon Martin -- players whose games rise when things get a little testy. The Spurs don't invite the type of sharp elbows Zach Randolph did, which may present a challenge to the Clippers to generate the muck on which they seem to thrive. But if the Clippers can prevent San Antonio from jumping too far in front, their toughness may keep Duncan from his almost-customary seat on the bench in the fourth quarter.
Tony Parker vs. Chris Paul. Paul will meet one of the few point guards in the game who can play him on equal footing. Paul finished third in the MVP voting; Parker was fifth. Paul ranked second this season in assist-to-turnover rate (4.38 to 1); Parker ranked seventh (3.03 to 1). Paul averaged 22.3 points and 8.7 assists in three games against the Spurs this season; Parker averaged 22.0 and 9.5 in two games vs. the Clippers. Unlike what Paul faced in the first round, Parker holds the keys to an offense that is more Ferrari than Ford -- a unit with 10 targets, including himself, who averaged at least nine points in the regular season.
But let's not forget that Paul is one of the few talents who can bend a game to his will. Even when dinged up, as he was in the latter stages of the Memphis series with a hip injury, Paul is capable of getting anywhere he wants on the floor -- either by quickness or force. As much as any player in the league, Paul is the Clippers' de facto coach, casting everyone into their optimal spots on the floor while getting in their ear. If there's one trouble spot for Paul, it's found in his (and the Clippers') tendency to cruise through the early stages of a game. That may make for spectacular 24-point fourth-quarter comebacks in the first round; it'll make for blowout losses in the second round.
Spurs: Tim Duncan. After a season of playing his fewest career minutes, Duncan appears fresher for the postseason than he has in ages. And the Spurs will need him spry for this matchup against the explosive Blake Griffin, who will test Duncan's ability to keep up with him on defense. What Duncan has lost in quickness, he makes up in craft, working angles, referees and his mid-range jumper (shooting 47 percent) to continue to present an axis around which the Spurs' offense can revolve. Still a threat in the paint, Duncan is one of the primary reasons why Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are getting spacious looks from the three-point line. Duncan's ability to produce will be critical at those times when the Clippers, one of the league's most deliberate teams, are able to make the game a grind. And whatever points he can win from the referees will be just as crucial in keeping Griffin -- who averaged four fouls in three games against the Spurs this season -- grounded.
Clippers: Caron Butler. Against "three-averse" Memphis, the Clippers' 27th-ranked three-point defense was a footnote. Against San Antonio, which shot a league-best 39.3 percent from behind the arc, it's a grenade waiting to explode. Butler will be counted on to defuse the threat, as he's sure to be matched up against the Spurs' deep pool of outside shooters. He doesn't need to stop them, much as he didn't stop Rudy Gay in the first round. But if he can at least make the Spurs' shooters become volume, inefficient scorers, the Clippers might be able to hang close enough in games to let Paul work his fourth-quarter magic.
The Spurs haven't lost since April 11. They've won the 14 games they've played in that span by an average of 18 points. They're the best-shooting team in the playoffs and have the stingiest field-goal defense.
Paul and Griffin (who is playing through a knee injury) are going to need a lot of help stopping a team as deep, savvy and rested as the Spurs. Of course, they did just take down a Grizzlies team that stunned San Antonio last year in the first round. But these Spurs are different, sleeker, based on an offense that can deliver from any spot on the floor -- quickly. The Clippers did well to win a playoff series for the first time since 2006, but San Antonio is on a roll and has too much firepower. Spurs in four.