By Andy Glockner
March 08, 2011
2011 NCAA Tournament Projection
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Notable developments: I moved VCU, despite its loss, ahead of Colorado for the final at-large. I don't think VCU's profile can hold up to a week's worth of high-major teams tacking on wins, however.

Last four out: Colorado, Saint Mary's, Clemson, Memphis.

New at-large teams in: VCU (as final team in).

At-large teams out: Colorado (as final team out).

Bids by conference: Big East (11); Big Ten and SEC (6); ACC and Big 12 (5); Atlantic 10, Colonial, Mountain West and Pac-10 (3); Horizon (2).

BRACKET KEY

League winners (automatic qualifiers) are listed with their conference for clarity.

In this bracket, the East matches up with the West, the Southeast with the Southwest in the national semifinals.

* Team officially won its league's automatic bid.

 
 
EAST - Newark, N.J.
 
Cleveland
 
1 Ohio State (Big Ten)
16 Boston U. (America East)
 
 
8 Old Dominion* (Colonial)
9 Utah State (WAC)
 
 
Denver
 
5 Xavier (Atlantic 10)
12 Oakland (Summit)
 
 
4 St. John's
13 Belmont* (Atlantic Sun)
 
 
Washington, D.C.
 
6 Kansas State
11 Michigan
 
 
3 Syracuse
14 UW-Milwaukee (Horizon)
 
 
Charlotte
 
7 Arizona (Pac-10)
10 Georgia
 
 
2 North Carolina (ACC)
15 Long Island (Northeast)
 
SOUTHEAST - New Orleans
 
Cleveland
 
1 Pittsburgh (Big East)
16 McNeese St. (Southland)/Texas So. (SWAC)
 
 
8 UCLA
9 Florida State
 
 
Tampa
 
5 Wisconsin
12 Gonzaga* (West Coast)
 
 
4 Louisville
13 Harvard (Ivy)
 
 
Tampa
 
6 Georgetown
11 Boston College/Alabama
 
 
3 Florida (SEC)
14 Kent State (MAC)
 
 
Tulsa
 
7 UNLV
10 Richmond
 
 
2 Texas
15 No. Colorado (Big Sky)
 
 
 
 
 
WEST - Anaheim
 
Chicago
 
1 Notre Dame
16 Beth.-Cook. (MEAC)/North Texas (Sun Belt)
 
 
8 Missouri
9 George Mason
 
 
Washington, D.C.
 
5 Connecticut
12 UAB (C-USA)
 
 
4 Kentucky
13 Bucknell (Patriot)
 
 
Chicago
 
6 Cincinnati
11 Butler
 
 
3 Purdue
14 Wofford* (Southern)
 
 
Denver
 
7 Texas A&M
10 Marquette
 
 
2 BYU (Mountain West)
15 Long Beach State (Big West)
 
SOUTHWEST - San Antonio
 
Tulsa
 
1 Kansas (Big 12)
16 UNC Asheville* (Big South)
 
 
8 Temple
9 Illinois
 
 
Tucson
 
5 Vanderbilt
12 Virginia Tech/VCU
 
 
4 West Virginia
13 Indiana State* (MVC)
 
 
Tucson
 
6 Tennessee
11 Michigan State
 
 
3 San Diego State
14 Morehead State* (Ohio Valley)
 
 
Charlotte
 
7 Villanova
10 Washington
 
 
2 Duke
15 Saint Peter's* (MAAC)
 
 

GENERAL NOTES

With the addition of three at-large spots (increasing the field to 68 teams), there are now four play-in games, dubbed the "First Four." Two games will match the tournament's lowest seeds, Nos. 65 through 68, with the winners claiming a No. 16 seed. The other two games will feature the last four teams of the 37 at-large qualifiers, with the winners likely receiving No. 11 or 12 seeds.

The top-four seeds in each region, starting with the No. 1 seeds, receive geographic preference when possible. An imbalance in high seeds between regions (e.g. if more than two top-four seeds are closest to the same subregional location) may force a protected seed into a secondary location.

Projected auto-bid winners in traditional one-bid leagues are determined by the best RPI from the team(s) with the fewest league losses. Teams can be moved a seed line up or down to conform to bracketing rules.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Bubble Watch.

Got a bone to pick with the Bracket Watch? Send feedback to bubblewatch@gmail.com.
 

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