By Andy Glockner
March 11, 2011
2011 NCAA Tournament Projection
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Notable moves:

• Pitt holds onto a No. 1 seed despite losing its Big East tournament opener for the third straight season.

• Colorado is safer in the bubble picture after completing a three-game sweep of Kansas State and advancing to the Big 12 semifinals.

• Michigan State didn't really do anything notable -- defeating Iowa in the first round of the Big Ten tournament -- but we're running out of teams that can catch MSU. It's really a process of elimination with the Spartans' bid candidacy.

Last four out: Clemson, Memphis, USC, Saint Mary's.

New at-large teams in: None

At-large teams out: None

Bids by conference: Big East (11); Big 12, Big Ten and SEC (6); ACC (5), Mountain West, Pac-10, Atlantic 10 and Colonial (3).

BRACKET KEY

League winners (automatic qualifiers) are listed with their conference for clarity.

In this bracket, the East matches up with the West, the Southwest with the Southeast in the national semifinals.

* Team officially won its league's automatic bid.

 
 
EAST - Newark, N.J.
 
Cleveland
 
1 Ohio State (Big Ten)
16 Boston U. (America East)
 
 
8 Old Dominion* (Colonial)
9 Villanova
 
 
Washington, D.C.
 
5 Xavier (Atlantic 10)
12 Alabama/Boston College
 
 
4 Connecticut
13 Belmont* (Atlantic Sun)
 
 
Washington, D.C.
 
6 Texas A&M
11 Gonzaga* (West Coast)
 
 
3 Syracuse
14 Kent State (MAC)
 
 
Charlotte
 
7 UNLV
10 Butler* (Horizon)
 
 
2 North Carolina (ACC)
15 Long Island* (Northeast)
 
SOUTHWEST - San Antonio
 
Tulsa
 
1 Kansas (Big 12)
16 UNC Asheville* (Big South)
 
 
8 George Mason
9 UCLA
 
 
Tucson
 
5 Vanderbilt
12 Michigan
 
 
4 Louisville
13 Indiana State* (Missouri Valley)
 
 
Tucson
 
6 Cincinnati
11 Michigan State
 
 
3 San Diego State
14 Morehead State* (Ohio Valley)
 
 
Charlotte
 
7 Kansas State
10 Georgia
 
 
2 Duke
15 St. Peter's* (MAAC)
 
 
 
 
 
WEST - Anaheim
 
Chicago
 
1 Notre Dame (Big East)
16 Beth.-Cook. (MEAC)/UALR* (Sun Belt)
 
 
8 Utah State (WAC)
9 Illinois
 
 
Denver
 
5 St. John's
12 Virginia Tech/VCU
 
 
4 Kentucky
13 Oakland* (Summit)
 
 
Denver
 
6 Tennessee
11 Richmond
 
 
3 BYU (Mountain West)
14 Wofford* (SoCon)
 
 
Tulsa
 
7 Georgetown
10 Washington
 
 
2 Texas
15 No. Colorado* (Big Sky)
 
SOUTHEAST - New Orleans
 
Cleveland
 
1 Pittsburgh
16 McNeese St. (Southland)/Texas So. (SWAC)
 
 
8 Florida State
9 Missouri
 
 
Tampa
 
5 West Virginia
12 UTEP (C-USA)
 
 
4 Wisconsin
13 Harvard (Ivy)
 
 
Tampa
 
6 Arizona (Pac-10)
11 Colorado
 
 
3 Florida (SEC)
14 Bucknell (Patriot)
 
 
Chicago
 
7 Temple
10 Marquette
 
 
2 Purdue
15 Long Beach State (Big West)
 
 

GENERAL NOTES

With the addition of three at-large spots (increasing the field to 68 teams), there are now four play-in games, dubbed the "First Four." Two games will match the tournament's lowest seeds, Nos. 65 through 68, with the winners claiming a No. 16 seed. The other two games will feature the last four teams of the 37 at-large qualifiers, with the winners likely receiving No. 11 or 12 seeds.

The top-four seeds in each region, starting with the No. 1 seeds, receive geographic preference when possible. An imbalance in high seeds between regions (e.g. if more than two top-four seeds are closest to the same subregional location) may force a protected seed into a secondary location.

Projected auto-bid winners in traditional one-bid leagues are determined by the best RPI from the team(s) with the fewest league losses. Teams can be moved a seed line up or down to conform to bracketing rules.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Bubble Watch.

Got a bone to pick with the Bracket Watch? Send feedback to bubblewatch@gmail.com.
 

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