SI.com's nine experts predict how Monday night's national championship game will play out.
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 Butler
Seth Davis The Bulldogs have had an incredible run, but in this one they have finally met their match. Unlike West Virginia, Butler excels at defending perimeter shooters, so Duke will have to beaten them from inside the three-point line. But the Blue Devils' guards are not just jump shooters; they love to drive the ball and create scoring opportunities inside and take lots of free throws, where they are ranked eighth in the country in percentage. Inside, Duke's size -- specifically 7-foot-1 senior center Brian Zoubek -- will be too much of an advantage, especially with Butler center Matt Howard (who is an undersized center at 6-8) questionable with a slight concussion. Some people are speculating Duke could win in a run away, but you don't run away from Butler. You use patience, execution, efficiency and toughness to slowly grind your way through the game. Duke is clicking on all cylinders now, and it says here they will grind, shoot and rebound their way to the national championship.
DUKE 65, BUTLER 57
Luke Winn Logic says to pick Duke: Vegas likes the Blue Devils by at least seven points, kenpom.com likes them by seven points, and Saturday's win over West Virginia proved that their offense is in high gear. But great offenses never seem to look great against the Bulldogs, who use near-perfect help defense to challenge every shot. I'll go with the fairy-tale ending.
BUTLER 64, DUKE 63
Stewart Mandel Butler has had a fantastic run, but it's been able to get away with shooting poorly and still winning by shutting down their opponent's top scorer. With the balance Duke has between Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler, someone's bound to get open. Meanwhile, Brian Zoubek is playing the best basketball of his career in this tournament and will be hard for Butler to handle on the glass. Duke has been the best team in this tournament and will cap it with a championship.
DUKE 73, BUTLER 64
Andy Staples Had Duke not enjoyed its offense-firing-on-all-cylinders game against West Virginia, I probably would have picked the Blue Devils. Butler will force Duke into bad shots, and the Devils' big men can't get every offensive rebound. Butler's Gordon Hayward, the breakout star of this tournament, can hit a big shot when the Bulldogs need one.
BUTLER 58, DUKE 56
Joe Posnanski The Butler story is so good and the Bulldogs do play dazzling defense. But unless Duke has a Kentucky-like three-point shooting nightmare -- which seems unlikely based on how well and how confidently the Blue Devils shot the ball Saturday -- that is a difference-maker. So is Duke's ability to get offensive rebounds. Butler will need all its magic to pull off this one.
DUKE 73, BUTLER 63
Andy Glockner The Blue Devils' combination of size, shooting and frontcourt depth will be too much for the Cinderella story to write one final joyous chapter. Barring a three-point barrage from the Bulldogs, it's hard to see how Butler will score enough to win, especially with a questionable Matt Howard.
DUKE 65, BUTLER 53
Tim Layden Butler is a terrific, resourceful team and a great story playing in its home town. However, after watching Duke close-up on Saturday night, the Blue Devils just have too many options. Butler has no answer for Brian Zoubek, especially if Matt Howard can't play. And if the Bulldogs sag on Duke's bigs, the perimeter guys will kill them. Cinderella story ends here.
DUKE 70, BUTLER 60
Kelli Anderson Why? After watching the Bulldogs beat three supposedly superior teams in succession, I've stopped betting against them.
BUTLER 61, DUKE 59
Joe Lemire The matchup between Butler's Gordon Hayward and Duke's Jon Scheyer should be competitive and entertaining -- but won't decide the title, as the two should mostly neutralize each other's games (with just a slight edge to Hayward). With the questionable status of Butler's mustachioed forward Matt Howard (slight concussion -- though, let's be honest, his playing time is regularly questionable with his propensity to get in foul trouble), the Bulldogs may have trouble contending with Duke's deep group of big bodies on the front line. If Howard doesn't play or plays but is tentative banging down low with wave after wave of Duke post players, Butler won't be able to contend with the Blue Devils' balanced attack.
DUKE 65, BUTLER 61
George Dohrmann Maybe I am overreacting to watching the Blue Devils shoot the lights out against West Virginia, but I don't know how Butler stops Duke's Big Three. If Brian Zoubek was such a force against West Virginia, I imagine only foul trouble will prevent him from doing the same in the title game.
DUKE 71, BUTLER 60
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