The Productive Junior Query: A January Update for the 2025 NBA Draft

Around 66% of college basketball players who meet four specific criteria play five or more years in the NBA or are currently in the league. Who are the current players that qualify?
Jan 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Michigan Wolverines center Danny Wolf (1) dribbles the ball against the UCLA Bruins in the first half at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Jan 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Michigan Wolverines center Danny Wolf (1) dribbles the ball against the UCLA Bruins in the first half at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

With conference play heating up and the 2025 NBA Draft approaching, everyone wants to find a diamond in the rough or feel more certain about players in this class outside of the projected top two picks.

In order to do this, it has become increasingly popular to design statistical queries to identify NBA talent. While I updated an article to review the players who are currently meeting the threshold for my Productive Young Athlete query last month, which has a "stick" rate of 76%, and provided an update to my Productive Sophomore Query last week (which has a 70% "stick" rate), the Productive Junior Query applies similar criteria to juniors.

For more information on prospects that have the criteria historically: 2024 NBA Draft: The Productive Junior Query

Introduction

Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played at least five seasons in the NBA. Prospects who qualified during the 2020-21 NCAA season met the criteria of “sticking” if they are still in the league, due to the impossibility of them reaching five NBA seasons.

There were 38 juniors throughout the 12 college basketball seasons from 2010-2021 who played at least 40% of their team's minutes, had a Box Plus-Minus of at least +10, and met the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks. 65.79% (25/38) of those juniors played five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA.

The purpose of this query is to find juniors with production so impactful that it has the potential to reliably predict NBA talent. Juniors who meet this criteria are being trusted to play almost a majority of their team's minutes, meet a certain production threshold, and also meet a minimum athletic threshold throughout the season.

The list below is in order of highest Box Plus-Minus (BPM) to lowest BPM


Adou Thiero, Arkansas (11.0 Box Plus-Minus)

Jan 14, 2025; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA;  Arkansas Razorbacks forward Adou Thiero (3) dribbles against LSU Tigers forward
Jan 14, 2025; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks forward Adou Thiero (3) dribbles against LSU Tigers forward Corey Chest (11) during the second half at Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

A player highlighted in my Two Returning Juniors to Monitor for the 2025 NBA Draft and Three More Under-the-Radar NBA Draft Prospects to Watch This Season articles last June and October, respectively, Thiero has had an extremely impactful season for Arkansas so far.

He's a 6-foot-6, 200-pound wing averaging 16.7 points, 2.1 assists, six rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game while converting 71.4% of his rim attempts (84 attempts) and 54.7% of his non-rim twos (53 attempts). His shooting outside the arc could improve, however, as he's only made six of his 27 attempted threes (22.2%) this season and is shooting 68.3% from the free throw line despite making 44 of his 55 attempts at the line (80%) last season.

Thiero is also recording a 7.7 offensive rebound percentage, 14.5 assist percentage (nearly double last season's), 10.9 turnover percentage, and a 3.6 block percentage.

While I haven't cut up film on him this season yet, below are his highlights from Kentucky's game against UNC in December 2023. Thiero will only be around 21.2 years old by the time of the 2025 NBA Draft.

Dan Skillings Jr, Cincinnati (10.6 Box Plus-Minus)

Jan 11, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA;  Cincinnati Bearcats guard Dan Skillings Jr. (0) dribbles the ball against Kansas Jayhaw
Jan 11, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats guard Dan Skillings Jr. (0) dribbles the ball against Kansas Jayhawks guard Rylan Griffen (6) in the first half at Fifth Third Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images / Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Skillings Jr is a 6-foot-6, 205-pound wing on a talented Cincinnati team alongside players like Dillon Mitchell, and Jizzle James. He's averaging 12.4 points, 1.9 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game while shooting 57.1% at the rim (49 attempts) and 37.8% from three (10.6 three point attempts per 100 possessions; 45 total attempts). He's only converting 65.4% of his free throws over a three-year sample of 179 attempts, however.

Additionally, Skillings Jr is recording a 9.4 offensive rebound percentage, 14.5 assist percentage, and 3.6 block percentage.

Darrion Williams, Texas Tech (10.5 Box Plus-Minus)

Jan 14, 2025; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats guard Max Jones (2) dribbles against Texas Tech Red Raiders
Jan 14, 2025; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats guard Max Jones (2) dribbles against Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Darrion Williams (5) and forward Federiko Federiko (33) during the first half at Bramlage Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images / Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

Williams is a 6-foot-6, 210-pound wing who's averaging 16.3 points, 4.9 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 0.5 blocks per game while converting 62.9% of his rim attempts (62 attempts), 44.7% of his non-rim twos (76 attempts), 37% of his threes (54 attempts), and 83.1% of his free throws (65 attempts).

Additionally, Williams is recording a 7.2 offensive rebound percentage, 29 assist percentage (nearly double last season's), and a 13.6 turnover percentage. I'm grateful I had the opportunity to interview Williams this past August. Check out the article below to learn more about his path from Sacramento to the University of Nevada to Texas Tech.

Read More: Darrion Williams Interview

Danny Wolf, Michigan (10.5 Box Plus-Minus)

Jan 12, 2025; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines center Danny Wolf (1) shoots on Washington Huskies forward
Jan 12, 2025; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines center Danny Wolf (1) shoots on Washington Huskies forward Wilhelm Breidenbach (32) in the first half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Wolf is a 7-foot, 255-pound big that transferred to Michigan after two seasons at Yale. A player I've gotten to see a handful of times in person either in the Ivy Tournament or at Cornell, Wolf's talents as a shooter, his ability to run offense through the post, his productivity as a roll man, and his intriguing flashes of ball-handling for his size were all there -- but his passing and slightly increased mobility on the defensive end have really popped this season.

He's averaging 13 points, 4.1 assists, 10.1 rebounds, one steal, and 1.5 blocks per game while shooting 72.8% at the rim (81 attempts), 44.4% of his non-rim twos (18 attempts), and 38.8% of his threes (49 attempts). His free throw percentage could improve, however, as he's only converted 61.2% of his attempts at the line so far this season (49 attempts). He made 71.7% of his free throws last season (99 attempts), however, so some positive regression is expected.

Additionally, Wolf is recording a 10.4 offensive rebound percentage, 28.4 defensive rebound percentage, 25.6 assist percentage (up from 15.2 assist percentage his freshman and sophomore seasons at Yale), and 5.4 block percentage. It should be noted that Wolf is recording a 28.1 turnover percentage and 3.9 turnovers per game, but is being tasked with far more passing, offensive creation, and ball-handling than he was doing at Yale.

Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State (10.3 Box Plus-Minus)

Jan 4, 2025; Ames, Iowa, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (2) controls the ball as Baylor Bears forward
Jan 4, 2025; Ames, Iowa, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (2) controls the ball as Baylor Bears forward Jason Asemota (5) defends at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Jefferson is a 6-foot-8, 220-pound wing/forward who's averaging 11.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.7 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game while shooting 72.7% at the rim (66 attempts), 34.9% on non-rim twos (43 attempts), and 77.8% from the free throw line (63 attempts). However, he is shooting 23.8% from beyond the arc this season on 21 attempts.

Additionally, Jefferson is recording an 8.2 offensive rebound percentage, 26.6 defensive rebound percentage, 2.4 block percentage, and 14 turnover percentage.

Terrance Arceneaux, Houston (10.2 Box Plus-Minus)

Dec 7, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars guard Terrance Arceneaux (23) dunks the ball during the second half agains
Dec 7, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars guard Terrance Arceneaux (23) dunks the ball during the second half against the Butler Bulldogs at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Arceneaux is a 6-foot-5 guard who's averaging 8.9 points, one assist, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.3 steals in only 21.4 minutes per game while shooting 51.7% at the rim (29 attempts), 52.5% on non-rim twos (40 attempts), 43.6% from beyond the arc (39 attempts), and 73.1% from the free throw line (26 attempts). While his percentage at the rim could improve, both his non-rim two percentage and three point percentage are impressive, and overall his three point percentage is up from 28.6% last season (36 attempts) and his free throw percentage is up from 52.6% in his first two seasons (38 attempts).

It should be noted that Arceneaux ruptured his Achilles tendon in December 2023, so he missed most of his sophomore season after playing 11 games and could continue to improve as the season progresses.

Conclusion: Why is this Useful?

The Productive Junior Query is best used when attempting to identify talent or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player.

For example, if a college basketball player meets the four criteria during the season, then due diligence on the player is likely necessary. Similarly, if you're considering a player with a second round pick who's met the Productive Junior Query, it may be a sense of comfort that 66% of players to hit the same criteria play five-plus seasons in the NBA.

This is especially important to take into account, as only 27% of second round picks from the 1990-2017 NBA Drafts ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career 10-24 minutes per game or over 4000 career NBA minutes. Regardless, the PJQ query should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles and medical information when evaluating a prospect.


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Published
Jordan Monaco
JORDAN MONACO

Jordan is a senior at Cornell University where he is an analytics consultant for the men’s basketball team and Co-President of the Cornell ILR Sports Business Society. He has also interned for Sports Aptitude, where he helped interview former front office members and current professional basketball players with the goal of improving the pre-draft process.