Mavs Holiday Donuts: 'Bah Humbug' to a Coal-Filled 4th Quarter in Toronto
DONUT 1: Raptors 110, Mavericks 107
The Dallas Mavericks on Sunday in Canada missed their first 11 shots of the game and trailed for most of the first half. They didn’t have their first lead of the game until nearly eight minutes into the second quarter. That score was 36-34. By the time Kristaps Porzingis knocked down his buzzer-beating 3 to end the first half, the Mavs had extended their lead to 51-42.
What a difference four minutes made to the narrative of that first half for the Mavericks.
The Mavericks outscored Toronto 35-21 in the third quarter, and there’s an argument to be made that they got a little sloppy after twice extending their lead to 30 points. That sloppy play to end the third turned into a 28-8 Toronto run that carried across from the third into the fourth. The Raptors used a full-court press defense to agitate the Mavericks into a lot of bad possessions, and with eight minutes left in the fourth the Mavs lead had dwindled to 10.
Four minutes later, the Raptors had a 98-97 lead.
Yeah, the Mavs wound up with a couple of chances in the final moments, but you don’t get a moral victory when you’re outscored 47-21 in the fourth quarter of a game you should’ve dominated. Especially when the loss drops the Mavericks to a game behind the Houston Rockets in the West playoff chase.
Get DBcom's Dalton Trigg game story here.
DONUT 2: The Results of the Eastern Conference Gauntlet
After Luka Doncic (ankle) went down vs. the Heat a little over a week ago, I said that I’d be happy with a 2-2 finish over the last four games of their tough Eastern Conference stretch. I definitely didn’t expect that the Bucks would be one of those victories.
Thanks to that win vs. Milwaukee, and another vs. the 76ers, the Mavericks had already met my expectations before they’d even tipped off against the Raptors on Sunday afternoon. See Fish's Video below, checking in from Philly, and you get the same feeling ...
That doesn’t make me feel any better about their loss to the Raptors, but I’d still argue that this young team made a statement. Unfortunately, they bookended these games with reminders of why they need Luka back as soon as possible. There are a lot of good players on this team, and when things are humming, it’s because of an elite team effort.
However, once things tighten up, or once the other team’s star gets going (as Kemba Walker did for Boston, or Kyle Lowry did for Toronto), the Mavericks didn’t always have someone they could count on to make any play, let alone the right one.
DONUT 3: Wanderlust
The Mavericks have a winning record at home, but it’s a lackluster 8-7 for a team with aspirations to host a playoff series.
On the other hand, the Mavericks are incredible on the road.
Despite their loss to Toronto, the Mavericks are 11-3 on the road this year, and for a solid stretch of the game against Toronto, it looked like they’d be 12-2.
To put that number into perspective, the Maverick went 9-32 on the road over the entire 2018-2019 season. It’s gonna be tough to hang in the top four of the Western Conference for 82 games, and even tougher if they keep losing every other home game. Their road prowess, if it holds up, might make that OK.
And yet ...
“We’re not looking to just be a little better than expected,” coach Rick Carlisle said after the Raptors game. “We’re looking to do exceptional things. That’s why this is really disappointing. But we’ll learn from it.”
DONUT 4: Tim Hardaway Jr. as Jekyll & Hyde
Last week I suggested that the Mavericks take a serious look at selling high on Tim Hardaway Jr. It’s not that I don’t like him. In fact, he’s made me a real convert over the first 30 games of this season. His steal and dunk in the third quarter vs. the Raptors is enough to make me question all trade logic. Maybe if he’d done it a few more times in the fourth I’d delete this entire Donut.
Unfortunately, his inconsistency makes him hard to trust on a nightly basis.
There was a TV graphic that went up before the Toronto game that highlighted THJ’s inconsistencies. Against the Kings he was 9-of-12 from three, against the Pistons he was 0-for-5, 6-of-14 vs Miami, another 0-for-5 game against the Bucks, 3-of-10 against the Celtics, 7-of-11 against the 76ers, and then 2-for-9 against the Raptors.
If he ever strings together six or seven consistent games, it might be time to move his contract. Yet, when Hardaway is at his best, he might be one of the best shooters in the world. It’s those transcendent games that make you say: never trade him. It’s the fact that they’re not the norm that makes you say, “He costs too much to be this uneven.”
If someone could find the loose wiring that causes him to absolutely forget how to shoot every other day and fix it, he could make a real push for a late-career renaissance. The rest of his game is energetic, hard-nosed, and inspiring. That should be enough to keep anyone on a roster, and if he were making Seth Curry money, I think it would be.
Unfair or not, $20 million a year is too much money for a guy who’s only gonna show up for 41 games, so if the Mavericks get the right chance to move his contract for something more consistent, they should.
That said: if Hardaway is here next year, and he's willing to opt-out of his $19-million player option to stay with the Mavericks on a more flexible long-term deal, he's played well enough that I wouldn't mind that at all.
DONUT 5: Bah Humbug
The Mavericks were a decent fourth-quarter effort away from their 20th win of the season before the Raptors pulled the carpet out from under them. It would’ve been the first time since 2013 that the Mavericks had 20 wins before Christmas.
They’ll have to look forward to the 2020-2021 season for that now, because they don’t play again until December 26. Plenty of time for a Ghost of Christmas Past to show up and make them watch the haunting specter of their work against the Raptors’ full-court-press.
If you’re looking for a Scrooge, look no further than Lowry, who went 12-of-23 in the game on the way to a near triple-double (32 points, 10 assists, eight rebounds). He accounted for more points in the fourth quarter than the entire Mavericks offense, and he only turned the ball over once all day.
DONUT 6: Bench Points and Turnovers
There are two huge reasons that the Mavericks lost to Toronto. The Mavericks turned the ball over 17 times, and their bench was outscored 48-20 by the Raptors’ bench.
The Mavericks came into the game with a clear advantage over the Raptors: depth. Despite the lack of Luka for the fourth (really fifth) straight game, the Mavericks are a picture of health compared to Toronto. Yet, somehow the Toronto bench absolutely bullied the Mavericks, especially on the defensive end.
That physicality, paired with the full-court press, seemed to absolutely dismantle the flow of the Mavericks offense - when it should have been an opportunity for a smart team to adjust and punish the over-aggressive tactics. This forced the Mavericks were into bad perimeter shots, sloppy turnovers, and those familiar shot-clock management issues that seem to plague them whenever Luka isn’t on the floor.
DONUT 7: What Did We Learn (Best Case)?
If you’d asked me my opinion about this Mavericks team when they were up 30, I’d have said: Look! Just as I predicted, the Mavericks learned a lot about themselves while Luka was out, they won 3-of-5 games during their toughest stretch so far. They absolutely dominated for long stretches of each game, especially on the road in Toronto.
Despite getting hit in the teeth, they overcame a 24-point deficit and gave themselves a chance against the Heat. They weathered a big scoring wave from the Bucks in the final minute, but stayed poised against the best team in the NBA and got the win.
So, there is room for optimism, as KP points out.
“We proved we can play,” Porzingis said. “We’re a good team, even with Luka being out. We were up 30 against Toronto at their home. We just didn’t finish it. It’s a tough one for us, but we’re a young group. We’ll learn from it.”
Now, when Luka gets back, they’ll have a team that’s even more prepared to do big things.
DONUT 8: What Did We Learn (Worst Case)?
On the other hand, here’s some of what I see after a 47-21 fourth-quarter that cost them a victory:
After watching these guys look absolutely confused against un-drafted backups, after seeing them wilt against one of the most basic defenses in the NBA, and after watching them give away a 30 point lead in 13 minutes? I’m not sure they’ve learned anything.
In fact, it makes me feel like that weird ending against the Bucks was a lucky break for the Mavs and not a weird hiccup during garbage time. Instead of a 3-2 record against some of the best, what I see instead is a 2-3 record. I see a 15-point lead they nearly blew to the Bucks. I see a team that couldn’t close out the Heat on the second half of a back-to-back, despite leads late in regulation and OT.
I see a team that doesn’t know who to go to when it matters—and while I think he’s a good player, it’s looking clearer-and-clearer that the answer is not more Jalen Brunson in crunch time. What he’s good at in the second quarter just isn’t available down the stretch, and he doesn’t seem to understand that. At one point in the fourth, Seth Curry was so frustrated by the way Jalen was wasting possessions that even as Jalen was headed to the line, Seth confronted him.
All he said was, “Come on man!” But, what it meant is this: There are other guys on this team, you can’t just dribble the ball until there are four seconds left. And, if you do, you’d better not turn it over or put your teammates in tough situations late in the shot clock.
DONUT 9: The Sky Isn't Falling
Jalen might not be built to finish games, but that’s also not his role. Luka is the starting point guard. What Jalen does off the bench is sustainable. He’s going to get buckets, he’s going to make quality choices when there’s still space for lobs and drives. When those vanish, Luka will come in and use his size, quickness, and his deeper bag of tricks to settle things down.
Beyond that, and despite my whining, the Mavericks really did show up during a tough stretch of basketball. I said I’d be happy with 3-2 when Luka was still HEALTHY. The only reason I can complain at all is that the Mavs gifted one historic comeback to short-handed Toronto.
What bothers me most is that the Mavericks are supposed to be deep, smart, and careful. They’re supposed to be an improving defense. They’re supposed to be all of the things they were for the second and third quarters in Toronto. They’re not supposed to be the kind of team that blows a 30 point lead.
Any time your team stumbles, you start to lose confidence that they know how to close games. If no lead is safe, then what are your aspirations? It’s a lot like losing two games to the Knicks. Yeah, it’s just two games, but you have to win a lot to outrun the stench of something like that.
The sky isn’t falling. Not even close. But it is polluted, and it’s time to clean it up.
DONUT 10: The Security of Luka’s Shoe Deal
The news is everywhere, but in case you missed it, Luka is close to signing a deal with Nike’s Jordan Brand. I’ve kind of enjoyed Luka as a basketball-shoe free-agent. It’s fun to see him out there in weird new shoes every night (sometimes twice in the same night). I’m also a fan of Under Armor, so it’s been fun when he occasionally rocks a Curry sneaker alongside Seth.
Still, there’s a lot of money in shoe deals, especially for a breakout sophomore who’s still on his rookie contract. I expect Luka to come back strong from his injury, and continue his pursuit of Most Improved Player, and a playoff run with the Mavericks. I expect him to chase MVP votes for years to come.
But here’s the thing: Sometimes, bad stuff happens. Paul George, Isaiah Thomas, Chandler Parsons, Gordon Hayward, Russell Westbrook, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant—the list of star players who’ve had major injuries is huge and it’s growing. Most of the guys on that list lost a year or more of their careers. Many, though not all, were fortunate that it did NOT cost them money. KD and Klay both got max deals while injured.
Thomas, however, has never been the same (and he never got really paid). Chandler Parsons is still in the league, but he’s now a punchline. Hayward's hurt again, but not as severely. The point is this: Luka was lucky that he didn’t hurt himself worse than he did. It looked terrible. It wasn’t. Some of that is because he’s a young guy who’s in really great shape. Some of it is just luck.
Just in case luck isn’t always on his side, and just in case Nike isn’t as generous a few weeks from now, Luka needed to get this deal done. It’ll create financial security no matter what happens on the court, and it’ll create financial incentives for that Finals MVP we hope to see him hoist one day. It takes care of the human being so that he can worry more about taking care of the basketball.
DONUT 11: What’s Next?
The Mavericks get to wallow in the stink of their fourth quarter against Toronto for a few days because they don’t play again until Thursday night in Dallas.
The death of the San Antonio Spurs was, once again, declared prematurely. Yes, they had only four wins and 12 losses in November, but they’re a very shrug-worthy 4-4 in December, with wins over Houston and Sacramento. Despite their 11-17 record, they’re only a half-game back of Sacramento for 9th place in the West, and two games behind 14-win Portland for eighth.
I believe the Mavericks, with or without Luka, are a much better team than San Antonio. I also believe that the Mavericks have proven to be the type of team that gears up after a tough loss. I don’t think Luka will be back for this game, and if he is it’ll probably mean restricted minutes, but I don’t think they’ll need him either.
For all my grumbling this week, the reality is this: I’m more upset than I should be, because this team has made me expect more from them than I saw on Sunday afternoon. Wins are tough to come by, and the Mavericks have already proven that you can be a good team and still give up huge leads. It’s just that they’re usually the ones making the big comeback.
The Mavs are going to come into Thursday with something to prove, and probably a little bad-mood hangover. That’s not great news for the Spurs.
DONUT 12: The Final Word
"When you get hit with that kind of force, you've got to respond with equal or greater force, and we just didn't do it soon enough.” - Mavs coach Rick Carlisle.
