The Championship Formula Part Five: Stay Healthy

Roster stability and games lost due to injury have been a major problem for the Pelicans. To win a title, that luck has to change.

Entering the 2022-23 NBA season, New Orleans Pelicans fans are expecting a major jump in the standings with the return of a healthy Zion Williamson and the maturation of a lineup that pushed the Phoenix Suns to six games in the opening round of the Western Conference playoffs.

How close are the Pels to being a legitimate championship contender?

To answer that, first there has to be an understanding of the components of a championship NBA team. After looking at the past decade of champions, some trends stand out.

This is part five in a five-part series identifying those keys to victory.

Last season Pelicans head coach Willie Green employed 23 different starting lineups.

His counterpart, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr, changed his lineup card a whopping six times.

Six.

Green could be comforted in knowing that’s been par for the course in New Orleans for some time. Over the past decade, the Pelicans have averaged slightly more than 23 groups of starters per season (23.2).

That’s almost seven more than the average of NBA champions during that stretch. Only once in those 10 years have the Pels used fewer than 15 lineups in a season. At the other end of the spectrum, only four of the last 10 champs used more than 15 lineups in the season they claimed the crown.

Roster instability has been an issue in New Orleans no matter who has been on the court, on the sidelines, or in the front office.

The last three seasons have been slightly better than the decade average, but the number is a bit skewed by Stan Van Gundy’s relatively consistent group of 15 lineups during the 2020-21 season. Both Green and Alvin Gentry each used 23 lineups with Zion Williamson missing most or all of those campaigns.

Green has to pray that he has better fortunes than Gentry did over his five-season run. From 2015-2020, the Pelicans sent 140 different starting lineups out onto the court, or just 25 fewer than the champions’ total for the entire decade.

Besides Williamson’s rather conspicuous absences over the last three years, Brandon Ingram has been MIA rather frequently TBH, having missed 49 games himself since joining the Pels.

Mar 30, 2022; Portland, Oregon, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram (14) drives to the basket during the first half against Portland Trail Blazers guard Keon Johnson (6) at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Versatile veteran Larry Nance Jr. has never played in more than 67 games during a regular season and appeared in only 137 games over the past three years.

Kira Lewis Jr. is looking to show his value after losing last year to a torn ACL, while rookies Dyson Daniels, Izaiah Brockington, and EJ Liddell have all been impacted by injury this offseason.

Health is such a difficult variable to account for. A team cannot adjust to injuries until they happen and recovery is based on estimates, rather than certainty. The only certainty is that they will happen.

The Pelicans have a very deep roster this season. Any player active on a given night could, and likely should, see time on the floor. The thing about depth is it only gets proven after it gets tested.

There should be confidence that when tested this season, the Pelicans will be better prepared to prove their mettle than in years past. There should also be hope that the tests are fewer and far between in the future.

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