The Patriots have performed at both ends of the spectrum their last two primetime matchups, looking awful in a 41-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs as 2.5-point road favorites on Monday Night Football in Week 4 and then shutting up their critics with a 43-17 rout of the previously unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals as 2.5-point home underdogs the next week on Sunday Night Football. New England is a consensus 9.5-point favorite against the Jets New York.
The Patriots are coming off a 37-22 victory over the Buffalo Bills last week as a one-point road underdog, in which they covered the spread for just the third time in their last eight games against AFC East opponents but suffered two key injuries in the process: Linebacker Jerod Mayo (knee) and running back Stevan Ridley (knee) were both lost for the season. Mayo was New England’s leading tackler, while Ridley was the team’s top rusher with 340 yards. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is also still dealing with an ankle injury that had him listed as questionable on the team's injury report heading into last week’s game.
Meanwhile, the Jets are riding a five-game losing streak since a 19-14 win in their season opener against the Oakland Raiders. They are 0-5-1 against the spread this season but nearly covered last week in a 31-17 home loss to the Denver Broncos. Trailing 24-17 in the final minute as a 9.5-point underdog, Jets quarterback Geno Smith threw a costly interception that went the other way for a touchdown and helped Denver backers cash their tickets. The Jets have played New England tough over the previous two seasons, going 3-1 against the spread with two games decided by a field goal in overtime. They won their most recent meeting with the Patriots 30-27 in overtime last October as 3.5-point home underdogs.
Totals bettors will likely side with the over on Thursday night due to some favorable trends pointing to a high-scoring game. The over is 10-3 in the last 13 games the Patriots have played against divisional foes at Gillette Stadium and 4-1 in their past five games as home favorites. The over is also 8-1-1 in the last nine meetings between the Patriots and Jets.