All eyes will be on Denver on Sunday night when Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning attempts to break Brett Favre’s career touchdown pass record against the San Francisco 49ers.
Manning needs just two touchdown passes to tie and three to break Favre’s all-time mark of 508, and he has racked up seven in the past two games as the Broncos covered the spread in back-to-back wins over the New York Jets and the Arizona Cardinals after starting the season 0-3 against the spread despite a 2-1 record straight up.
Denver needed an interception return for a touchdown in the final minute against the Jets to beat the 9.5-point spread in a 31-17 road victory last weekend. The Broncos are consensus 6.5-point favorites this week against the 49ers, who are also coming off a 31-17 win away from home over the Rams on Monday Night Football. San Francisco closed as a 3.5-point road favorite against the Rams and got some security from an interception returned for a score in the final minutes.
The 49ers trailed St. Louis 14-0 before scoring 10 straight points prior to halftime, including an 80-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Colin Kaepernick to wide receiver Brandon Lloyd that gave them momentum. San Francisco will visit Denver on a short week but has won five of the last seven meetings between the teams both straight up and against the spread, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. However, the 49ers have lost four of their last five road games against AFC West opponents, going 1-4 against the spread in that span. The Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against NFC West foes.
Some may view this matchup as a potential Super Bowl preview, but both teams still have a long way to go to get there. The 49ers will just be trying to get through this game without any more injuries after losing middle linebacker Patrick Willis to a toe injury against the Rams. They are off next week to try to get healthier and have gone 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven road games before a bye. The under is 3-0 in San Francisco’s past three road games prior to a bye as well, but the over is 6-0 in the last six home games for the Broncos against NFC West opponents.