The third week of the 2015 NFL season comes to a close Monday evening, as the Green Bay Packers host the Kansas City Chiefs. The Packers opened as a 6.5-point favorite, and the line has stuck there, with the occasional seven-point spread at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The moneyline has the Packers between -300 and -320, and the Chiefs at +250 to +260.
A huge question for the Packers this week was whether or not running back Eddie Lacy will play after suffering an ankle injury in Week 2. He sat out Thursday practice, and was a limited participant on Friday and Saturday. The Packers upgraded Lacy to probable on Sunday, which means he is likely to play. If he cannot play, James Starks would start in his place.
The other notable Packers injuries include WR Davante Adams and safety Sean Richardson, who are listed as questionable with ankle injuries but expected to play. Randall Cobb is listed as probable with a shoulder injury, but will play.
The Chiefs are in fairly good health. They have nine players on their injury report, but all are listed as probable after full participation in practice this week. The group includes left tackle Donald Stephenson (ankle), wide receivers Jeremy Maclin (knee) and Albert Wilson (shoulder), and linebacker Josh Mauga (Achilles).
The Chiefs are 6–1 ATS against the Packers in their last seven meetings according to the OddsShark NFL Database, and have never lost at Lambeau Field. Of course, the last time they played in Lambeau was 2003, so we can take that with a grain of salt.
The Chiefs are 5–1 SU and 6–0 ATS in their last six September road games. Kansas City won and covered against the Houston Texans in Week 1, and lost and failed to cover against the Denver Broncos in Week 2.
The Packers are 5–1 ATS in their last six games, and 7–2 ATS in their last nine home games. They have secured wins and covers in their first two games of 2015, beating the Chicago Bears on the road in Week 1, and beating the Seattle Seahawks at home in Week 2.
The point total is set at 49 points. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five matchups between these two teams. The Chiefs have gone UNDER in five of their last seven road games, while the total has gone OVER in seven of the Packers' last 10 home games.
The OddsShark Computer predicts a 24.9-18.7 Packers win. That would provide for a Chiefs cover and the UNDER.