The NFL regular season is nearing its conclusion but there are still a few weeks remaining to capitalize on some soft lines posted by oddsmakers. As is often the case late in the year, teams that are in the playoff mix find themselves being asked to cover inflated numbers, and we’ll once again look to fade the teams expected to win handily.
The Minnesota Vikings host the Chicago Bears in an NFC North affair. The Vikings are coming off a tough loss in Arizona last week, and this looks to be a good opportunity to fade them, with big games against the Giants and Packers on deck to close the season.
We wouldn’t be surprised to see Minnesota come out flat here, and that could cost them against a Bears squad that is 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games. Chicago has won their last three road games outright, emerging victorious in Green Bay, St. Louis, and San Diego, and we’ll be happy to scoop up the 5.5 points that are being offered at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
A similar situation presents itself in Baltimore this week, where the hapless Ravens play host to the Chiefs, who are looking to make a playoff push. We’re fully aware that Baltimore is a bad team, but in this day and age it’s not easy to win by more than a touchdown on the road.
Kansas City’s offense is led by a game managing quarterback in Alex Smith, and that makes it a difficult proposition to ask them to cover big numbers away from home. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the AFC North according to the OddsShark NFL Database and are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last four games against the Ravens. We’ll grab Baltimore at +7.5.
Finally, the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Denver Broncos in a pivotal AFC matchup. The Steelers are in a dogfight for a Wild Card spot in the AFC, and their “need to win” factor has inflated this line against a quality Broncos squad.
The Broncos are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games as underdogs, and they’ll be looking to get back on track after a disappointing loss to the Raiders last week. A closer look at that box score reveals that Denver dominated that game, but were done in by turnovers, which are often a product of luck and not skill.
With a generous line of +7 being offered we’ll back the Broncos this weekend to complete our trifecta.