Quickly

  • Week 5's Sunday afternoon slate is a good one, featuring an NFC Championship Game rematch in Philadelphia and a strength-on-strength battle in Kansas City. Where should bettors direct their attention?
By Scott Gramling
October 05, 2018

Still undefeated, Kansas City is vulnerable playing on a short week after going all out in a come-from-behind Monday night victory—and the Jaguars are ready to pounce. Who else is going to cover the spread in Week 5's afternoon games?


Subscribe to The MMQB Podcasts and get The MMQB Gambling Show every Friday


Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Cleveland Browns

1:00 p.m. ET

• Baltimore is 4-9-1 against the spread as a road favorite since the start of the 2013 season.

• Over the total is 6-1-1 in games Baltimore has played when coming off back-to-back wins since the start of the 2016 season.

• As shocking as it may sound, the Browns could easily be 4-0 coming into this one.

Side: Browns (+3)

Confidence Level: Very High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)

Total: Over 45.5

Confidence Level: Very High


Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

1:00 p.m. ET

• Kansas City is 2-10 against the spread at home when facing an AFC South opponent since the start of the 2007 season.

• Under the total is 27-11 in games the Chiefs have played as a home favorite with Andy Reid as the team’s head coach.

• This is a tough spot for a Chiefs team coming off a short week after having played in Denver on Monday night.

Side: Jaguars (+3)

Confidence Level: Extremely High

Total: Under 48.5

Confidence Level: Moderate


Tennessee Titans (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills

1:00 p.m. ET

• Buffalo is 4-10-2 against the spread as an underdog of fewer than 8 points since the start of the 2016 season.

• Over the total is 7-0 in games the Bills have played at home after a road loss since the start of the 2016 season.

• This marks the first time so far this season that Tennessee has been favored.

Side: Titans (-5.5)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Over 39

Confidence Level: Moderate


New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)

1:00 p.m. ET

• Carolina is 14-4-1 against the spread when hosting teams outside the NFC South since the start of the 2015 season

• Under the total 19-7 in games the Giants have played as an underdog since the start of the 2016 season.

• Carolina is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread when coming off a bye since the start of 2015.

Side: Panthers (-6.5)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Under 43.5

Confidence Level: Moderate


Denver Broncos at New York Jets (PK)

1:00 p.m. ET

• Denver is 2-10 against the spread over the past two calendar years when facing an AFC opponent away from home.

• Under the total is 10-2 in Denver games when facing a team with losing records since the start of the 2016 season.

• Denver is 0-5 straight up and against the spread since the start of 2017 in games that have started at 1 p.m. ET.

Side: Jets (PK)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Under 42.5

Confidence Level: Low


Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

1:00 p.m. ET

• Pittsburgh is 0-6 against the spread at home since the start of 2016 when facing a team averaging 24 or more points per game.

• Under the total is 12-1 in Pittsburgh games against teams allowing at least 350 yards per game since the start of 2016.

• In a game that could go either way between teams with struggling defenses, the wise play is to take the points.

Side: Falcons (+3.5)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Under 58

Confidence Level: High


Green Bay Packers (PK) at Detroit Lions

1:00 p.m. ET

• Green Bay is 8-11 both straight up and against the spread in road games since the start of the 2016 season.

• Over the total is 16-3 in Green Bay road games since the start of the 2016 season.

• The Packers aren’t the same team on the road as they are at home, and the Lions should be favored here.

Side: Lions (PK)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Over 51

Confidence Level: Low


Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6)

1:00 p.m. ET

• Miami is 1-7 against the spread when facing AFC North opponents since the start of the 2014 season.

• Over the total is 8-2 in games Miami has played when coming off back-to-back games with fewer than 100 rushing yards.

• Miami is the only team that ranks outside the NFL’s top 25 in both total offense and total defense.

Side: Bengals (-6)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Over 48.5

Confidence Level: Moderate


Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5)

4:05 p.m. ET

• The Los Angeles Chargers are 8-17 against the spread in home games over the past three calendar years.

• Over the total is 8-2 in games Oakland has played between Weeks 5 and 9 since the start of the 2016 season.

• Off their first win of 2018, the Raiders have the offense to take advantage of the Chargers’ weak defense.

Side: Raiders (+5)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Over 52.5

Confidence Level: Very High


Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-4)

4:25 p.m. ET

• Arizona is 6-0 against the spread when coming off back-to-back straight-up losses since the start of the 2016 season.

• Over the total is 7-2 in games San Francisco has played between Weeks 5 and 9 since the start of the 2016 season.

• Cardinals rookie quarterback Josh Rosen is an upgrade for Arizona’s offense, and San Fran’s soft secondary gives the Cards a chance.

Side: Cardinals (+4)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Over 40

Confidence Level: Very High


Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

4:25 p.m. ET

• Minnesota is 18-6-1 against the spread as an underdog of eight points or fewer under head coach Mike Zimmer.

• Under the total is 6-1 in games Minnesota has played after having scored 30 or more points in its previous game.

• Having not played since last Thursday night's game, the Vikings come into this one with three extra days of rest.

Side: Vikings (+3)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Under 46

Confidence Level: Low


Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Seattle Seahawks

4:25 p.m. ET

• The Rams are 7-3 against the spread in road games since the start of last season.

• Over the total is 16-5 in games Seattle has played under head coach Pete Carroll as an underdog of between 3½ and 9½ points.

• The Rams won by 35 in Seattle last December, and the Seahawks’ roster has only deteriorated since then.

Side: Rams (-7)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Over 50

Confidence Level: Low

You May Like

HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
OUT
HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
IN
Eagle (-2)
Birdie (-1)
Bogey (+1)
Double Bogey (+2)