One of the best offenses in the NFL takes on one of the best defenses when the Chiefs face the Jaguars. How should you bet on the 48.5 total for that game?
On Monday night, the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) were held in check for the first three quarters before outscoring the Denver Broncos (2-2) by a 14-3 margin in the fourth en route to a 27-23 victory. The total finished under 53.5 points to snap a five-game over streak for the Chiefs dating back to the preseason, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.
This Sunday, Kansas City hosts the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) in what will be the team's biggest test yet, with the total sitting between 48.5 and 49 points.
The past five regular-season games for the Chiefs have all seen at least 50 points scored going back to 2017 while the Jaguars have been on the opposite end of the spectrum with 43 or less in six straight (not including the playoffs). Many believe a great defense will beat a great offense most of the time, but that did not happen for Denver versus Kansas City last week.
The question is, can Jacksonville hold the league's top-scoring offense below 27 points for the first time this season? The total has gone under for the Chiefs in five of their last six home games, so the under is this week's best bet.
Speaking of the Broncos, they are visiting the New York Jets (1-3) in another AFC matchup with one of the lowest over/under lines on the betting board at 42.5 points on the NFL Week 5 betting totals at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
It would be surprising to see these two teams combine for more than six touchdowns or a combination of field goals and touchdowns to finish above that number. The under is 9-1 in Denver's previous 10 road games versus teams with losing records, so this is another one that looks like a sure-fire under in Sunday's action.
Finally, the highest total of Week 5 involves the Atlanta Falcons (1-3) and Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1), neither of which have played much defense so far this season. With the total between 57 and 58 at most books, you would think the under might be a good play.
However, the over has cashed in seven of Pittsburgh's last nine home games, with an average of a little more than 60 points scored. Take the over again.