• Despite a series of injuries to impact players, the 49ers may be getting too many points on Monday night.
By Scott Gramling
October 12, 2018

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5)

Mon. 10/15, 8:15 p.m. ET

Three things you need to know before betting on San Francisco-Green Bay:

1. Despite just one win over their last four games, the Packers are nearly a double-digit favorite against the 49ers. That is due in part to a San Francisco injury list that includes quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in a Week 3 loss to Kansas City. It’s the 49ers’ defense that’s played a major role in keeping the team competitive for most of this season. San Francisco is allowing an average of 5.3 yards per play, which ranks ninth among NFL teams. The 49ers are also one of only eight NFL defenses that’s giving up an average of fewer than seven yards per pass attempt. Those numbers are particularly impressive when considering that four of San Francisco’s first five opponents entered Week 6 ranked among the top half of the league in yards per play, and that the offenses of two of those teams—the Chiefs and Chargers—rank among the NFL’s top five in both yards per play and yards per attempt.

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2. San Francisco’s 136 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry both rank fourth among NFL offenses. The Niners have the seventh-best rushing defense in the league (94.6 yards per game) and have allowed the sixth-fewest yards per carry (3.7). They racked up 447 total yards of offense in their 28-18 home loss to the Cardinals on Sunday, undermining their otherwise impressive attack with five turnovers. While no NFL team had a turnover margin worse than San Francisco’s minus-8 entering Week 6, there’s a good chance that the miscues won’t continue against a Packers defense that only once all season has managed to force more than one turnover in a single game. NFL favorites of between 3.5 and 10 points are 46-82 against the spread since the start of the 2014 season when coming off a game in which they failed to force a turnover.

3. San Francisco is 4-1 against the spread when coming off a loss to an NFC West rival since Kyle Shanahan took over as the team’s head coach prior to last season, which includes a 2-0 mark when that loss has been by double digits. While the 49ers are 4-2 against the spread over their last six road games, Green Bay is 3-4-1 straight up and 3-5 against the spread over its past eight games at Lambeau Field.

Pick: San Francisco +9.5

Confidence Level: High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)