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  • Baker and the Browns host a scary Chargers offense, while the Steelers need a win against rival Cincinnati. What else is on tap for Week 6's Sunday afternoon games?
By Scott Gramling
October 12, 2018

Despite having lost two straight, there's no way Miami should be getting more than a field goal at home against the Bears this week. Where else can you find strong values among Week 6's Sunday afternoon schedule?


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Arizona Cardinals (-10) at Minnesota Vikings

1:00 p.m. ET

• Minnesota is 13-5-1 against the spread under head coach Mike Zimmer when facing a team with a losing record.

• Under the total is 7-3 in games Minnesota has played against NFC West opponents since the start of the 2014 season.

• Don’t expect the Vikings to get caught off guard like they did at home against Buffalo last month.

Side: Vikings (-10)

Confidence Level: Moderate (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)

Total: Under 43

Confidence Level: High


Los Angeles Chargers (PK) at Cleveland Browns

1:00 p.m.

• Cleveland is 0-13 against the spread under coach Hue Jackson vs. defenses allowing a completion percentage of at least 64%.

• Under the total is 9-1 in games the Chargers have played when coming off a straight-up win since the start of last season.

• Road favorites that average at least 255 passing yards per game are 11-1 against the spread since the start of the 2014 season when coming off three straight games in which they averaged 7 or more passing yards per attempt.

Side: Chargers (PK)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Under 45.5

Confidence Level: Moderate


Chicago Bears (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins

1:00 p.m.

• Chicago is 5-12-1 against the spread in road games since the start of the 2016 season.

• Over the total is 13-4 in games Miami has played at home since the start of the 2016 season.

• The Dolphins weren’t as good as their 3-0 start, but they’re not as bad as their 0-2 record the past two weeks.

Side: Dolphins (+3.5)

Confidence Level: Extremely High

Total: Over 41.5

Confidence Level: Very High


Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (-1)

1:00 p.m.

• Washington is 1-8 against the spread vs. defenses allowing a completion percentage of at least 61% since the start of 2017.

• Over the total is 13-2 when Washington has faced teams that average at least 350 yards per game since the start of 2016.

• This is a tough spot for a Redskins team coming off a short week after a Monday night road game.

Side: Panthers (+1)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Over 44.5

Confidence Level: Moderate


Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2)

1:00 p.m.

• Indianapolis is 8-2 against the spread when coming off a double-digit loss since the start of the 2016 season.

• Over the total is 7–0 in October games Indianapolis has played on the road since the start of the 2016 season.

• Although wideout T.Y. Hilton remains doubtful to play, the Colts should be at least somewhat more healthy than they were when they visited Foxboro last Thursday.

Side: Colts (+2)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Over 45.5

Confidence Level: Low


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)

1:00 p.m.

• Pittsburgh is 13–3–2 against the spread in road games played against Cincinnati since the start of the 2002 season.

• Under the total is 11–3 in games Pittsburgh has played on the road against AFC teams since the start of the 2016 season.

• Coming off an impressive Week 5 win, the Steelers face the Bengals in what has been a one-sided rivalry of late.

Side: Steelers (+1.5)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Under 52.5

Confidence Level: Extremely High


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

1:00 p.m.

• Atlanta is 1–8 against the spread under head coach Dan Quinn when coming off back-to-back straight-up losses.

• Under the total is 9–1 in games Atlanta has played following three-straight losses against the spread under head coach Dan Quinn.

• The Buccaneers are 5-1 against the spread over the past six road games they’ve played when coming off a bye week.

Side: Buccaneers (+3)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Under 57.5

Confidence Level: High


Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) vs. Oakland Raiders in London

1:00 p.m.

• Seattle is 11-4-1 against the spread when coming off a home loss under head coach Pete Carroll.

• Over the total is 8–1 in games Seattle has played against AFC opponents since the start of the 2016 season.

• The average margin of victory in last year’s international games was 26.

Side: Seahawks (-2.5)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Over 48

Confidence Level: Extremely High


Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10)

1:00 p.m.

• Houston is 1-5-1 against the spread when coming off a win by fewer than seven points since the start of the 2016 season.

• Under the total is 10-5 in games Buffalo has played as a road underdog since the start of the 2016 season.

• Houston has yet to win a game in regulation, and Buffalo has the defense to be able to keep this one close.

Side: Bills (+10)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Under 41

Confidence Level: Low


Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Denver Broncos

4:05 p.m.

• Denver is 0-9 against the spread when facing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards per game since the start of 2017.

• Over the total is 8–2 in games the Rams have played on the road since the start of last season.

• Denver is the only team that ranks among the NFL’s bottom 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense.

Side: Rams (-7)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Over 51.5

Confidence Level: Moderate


Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Dallas Cowboys

4:25 p.m.

• Dallas is 7-17 against the spread at home when coming off a straight-up loss under head coach Jason Garrett.

• Under the total is 14-3 in games Dallas has played against AFC opponents since the start of the 2014 season.

• Jacksonville comes into this one having gone 10-5 against the spread over its past 15 road games.

Side: Jaguars (-3)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Under 40.5

Confidence Level: Moderate


Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (-3)

4:25 p.m.

• Tennessee is 8–2 against the spread when coming off a straight-up loss since the start of the 2016 season.

• Under the total is 20–6 in games Baltimore has played against AFC South opponents under head coach John Harbaugh.

• Tennessee is 13-3 straight up and 11-4-1 ATS at home over the past two calendar years.

Side: Titans (+3)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Under 41.5

Confidence Level: Low

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