The last two games for the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) have stayed under the total after five consecutive overs cashed dating back to the preseason. In this week's Sunday night matchup, the Chiefs visit the defending AFC champion New England Patriots (3-2) in what is expected to be another high-scoring affair at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com, with one of the biggest totals ever at 59.5 points.
In last year's NFL season opener, New England fell to Kansas City 42-27 at home in one of the most surprising results of the season. The total easily eclipsed the closing number of 47.5 points, with the Patriots getting upset as eight-point favorites. They will be out to avenge that loss here at Gillette Stadium and hand the Chiefs their first loss.
Historically speaking, only two games in the OddsShark NFL Database have closed with a total of 60 points or more, and none since 2004. Kansas City actually edged the Oakland Raiders 31-30 on Christmas that year to go over with the total closing at 60.5. Prior to that, the St. Louis Rams defeated the San Francisco 49ers 34-24 in a game that went under after closing at 61.5 for the largest total in the database 18 years ago.
Three key trends make this the best total bet in Week 6 to go over despite the high number. First, the total has gone over in the past three meetings between the teams. Secondly, the over is 7-3 in New England's last 10 home games versus teams with winning records. And last but not least, the over is 10-4 in the previous 14 prime-time appearances for the Chiefs, who lead the league in scoring with 36 points per game.
Another game earlier on Sunday that also looks like it will be a shootout will take place in Atlanta between the Falcons (1-4) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2). Both NFC South teams are desperate for a victory and should light up the scoreboard with the total sitting at 57.5 on the NFL Week 6 odds. The over has cashed in four straight for Atlanta and five in a row for Tampa Bay, making this another solid wager to finish above the total.