The Falcons-Buccaneers game currently has an over/under sitting at 57.5 with a spread of just three. If the game total holds, this will be the highest closing over/under that we’ve seen on the main slate all year. 4for4 projects ownership to be slanted heavily toward this game, but there are two other games on the main slate with over/unders of at least 50 and five teams are projected by Vegas to score at least 26 points. Looking for unpopular plays in any of these games can be a great way to gain leverage on the inflated ownership of the Bucs and Falcons.
Situation to monitor: Devonta Freeman is questionable for Sunday with a foot injury. If he sits, Tevin Coleman becomes a top value at his position on both sites.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
Jameis Winston ($7,400) at Falcons
4for4 projects two quarterbacks on the main slate to score at least 22 FanDuel points—Jameis Winston and Matt Ryan—but Winston comes at a $900 discount to his quarterback opponent. When adjusted for strength of schedule, 4for4 ranks Atlanta 27th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Even if we weren’t aware of the massive projected point total in this game, this one has all the makings of a shootout—both offenses rank in the top 10 in passing rate in one-score games, Tampa Bay ranks last in fantasy points allowed per pass attempt, and Atlanta barely has a starter left on defense. With all these factors in play, 4for4 gives the nod to Winston as the quarterback with the best odds to hit cash game value on the main slate.
Cooper Kupp ($6,800) at Broncos
Each week, DFS players should take a look at the Rams wide receivers and consider rostering the most affordable option. Kupp, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods have all seen at least 20% of their team’s targets and even though Kupp is tied for the team lead in targets and ranks fifth in the league in red zone targets, he is the cheapest of the bunch. On FanDuel, those red zone numbers are especially important—touchdowns are emphasized when scoring only awards 0.5 points per reception and there is no yardage bonus. Kupp is a value that ties you to Jared Goff, the quarterback with the most fantasy points per attempt in the league.
Julio Jones ($7,900) vs. Buccaneers
Because running back scoring is so predictable, it’s rare that running backs don’t dominate the top of the 4for4 Value Report, but this week Julio Jones is a top-three value across all positions. Only one player has accounted for a higher percentage of team targets than Jones this year and he’ll face a Tampa Bay defense that ranks last in schedule-adjusted points allowed to wide receivers, according to 4for4. Despite the great matchup, Jones saw the second-biggest price drop from last week of any receiver on this slate.
T.J. Yeldon ($6,400) at Cowboys
DraftKings pricing is as tight as it’s been all season so anyone that even resembles a steal is almost a must-play this week. With Leonard Fournette out for most of Week 4 and all of Week 5, T.J. Yeldon averaged more than 19 touches. Even before Fournette’s injury, Yeldon has played a major part in Jacksonville’s passing game, averaging 6.4 targets per game with at least seven targets in 3-of-5 games this season. Dallas is a middle-of-the-pack defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs and Yeldon should see a run-favoring game script with the Jaguars favored by three.