The Texans have surrendered 16 points or fewer three times during a four-game winning streak to move atop the AFC South. So is the under a smart play vs. the Dolphins on Thursday night?

By OddsShark
October 24, 2018

In the first three games of the season, the Houston Texans (4-3) gave up 20 points or more in losing all of them. Since then, the Texans have surrendered 16 points or fewer three times during a four-game winning streak to essentially save their season and move atop the AFC South.

Houston will host the Miami Dolphins (4-3) in the Week 8 Thursday Night Football matchup as a 7.5-point home betting favorite on the NFL Week 8 odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com, with the total sitting between 44 and 44.5 after opening higher at 45.

The Dolphins have dropped three of four following a 3-0 start, and they are now relying on former Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler to lead the offense. Osweiler has gone 1-1 since taking over for injured starter Ryan Tannehill, with Miami averaging 26 points. Of course bettors need to know that his old team will have an advantage facing him, as Houston head coach Bill O'Brien decided to part ways with him after the 2016 season.

This TNF game looks to be a low-scoring affair, something many of the primetime matchups have turned out not to be so far this season. The winning team has scored at least 34 points in each of the previous four TNF games along with five of the past six. The odds of that happening again here seem very slim, so the best bet from a props perspective is under six total touchdowns at +144 (wager $100 to win $144).

Another good bet is for neither team to score 25 or more at +250, providing even more value if you believe points will be at a premium. The Texans have not scored more than 22 points in six of their first seven games, winning their last three despite totaling 20 or less.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins have not scored more than 20 points in their first three on the road, going 1-2 in those games, and that was with Tannehill under center.

If you want a solid bet on a player to score a touchdown in this matchup, look no further than Houston's Lamar Miller. The former Miami running back is +200 to score anytime in the game, and he will be extra motivated coming off his best performance of the year with 22 carries for 100 yards and one touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

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