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  • Green Bay looks to bounce back from a tough two-point road loss against the Rams this past Sunday. How will the Packers fare in New England?
By Scott Gramling
October 31, 2018

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-6)

Sun. 11/4, 8:20 p.m. ET

Three things you need to know before betting on Green Bay-New England:

1. Coming off a two-point loss to the unbeaten Rams last Sunday, Green Bay faces another difficult road test when it visits red-hot New England on Sunday night. The Packers were leading in Los Angeles until a Rams field goal with just over two minutes left on the clock. Green Bay’s Ty Montgomery was reportedly instructed by coaches to take a knee on the ensuing kickoff return. Instead, he fumbled after taking the ball out of the end zone, losing it after getting hit just past the 20-yard line. Green Bay did have success offensively, scoring 27 points against a Rams defense that had allowed an average of only 18.3 points per game over its first seven games. The Patriots, meanwhile, won their fifth straight game on Monday night in Buffalo by a 25-6 score, although the game was closer than the score would indicate. It took New England more than 50 minutes to score an offensive touchdown, and the game was sealed by an 84-yard Devin McCourty interception return for a score in the fourth quarter with the Bills driving in an attempt to cut the lead to less than a touchdown. Teams playing on a Sunday after having been on the road the previous Monday night are 9-15 straight up and 8-16 against the spread since the start of last season, and that’s despite the fact that all but five of those teams have played those Sunday games at home.

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The MMQB Staff's Favorite Week 9 Bets Against the Spread

2. Aaron Rodgers is one of only three NFL quarterbacks (along with Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger) who enters Week 9 averaging more than 325 passing yards per game. He’ll be facing a New England pass defense that has allowed an average of 328.3 passing yards per game over its past four contests, despite the fact that one of those games was against journeyman quarterback Derek Anderson and a Buffalo offense that’s the NFL’s only squad averaging fewer than 150 passing yards per game. Anderson threw for 287 against New England after notching only 175 passing yards the prior week in Indianapolis. NFL road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that complete at least 60% of their pass attempts are 21-8 against the spread since the start of the 2014 season when coming off a run of three straight games in which they gained an average of at least seven yards per pass attempt.

3. In the last two seasons combined, road teams coming off a road loss were 14-6 against the spread in November games. The Packers are 20-9 against the spread on the road under head coach Mike McCarthy when coming off a loss. Green Bay has also been able to bounce back from close losses under McCarthy, going 19-8 ATS following a defeat by six points or fewer during his time at the helm since the start of 2006. Although the Packers defense has allowed 817 total yards over its past two games, the team is 6-0 against the spread since the start of 2016 when coming off back-to-back games in which it allowed 375 or more total yards. Green Bay has held its opponents to an average of 14.5 points over those six games, winning them by an average of 13.5 points per contest.

Pick: Green Bay +6

Confidence Level: Very High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)

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