- With an extremely strong track record as a home underdog in recent seasons, the Seahawks are in a good spot to topple a Kansas City team that suddenly looks vulnerable.
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)
Sun. 12/23, 8:20 p.m. ET
Three things you need to know before betting on Chiefs-Seahawks:
1. While the Chiefs have gone 0-4-1 against the spread over their past five games, Seattle is 7-2-1 against the spread since the calendar flipped to October. This includes pummeling a pair of visiting teams in December (San Francisco and Minnesota) by a combined score of 64 to 23. The Seahawks have been riding a powerful ground game that has produced the most rushing yards in the NFL this year (154.9 per game). Expect them to continue to have success on the ground against a Kansas City defense that has been bulldozed for 161.3 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry over its past three contests. Although the Chiefs will likely also try to run the football, Seattle has held three straight opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards, limiting them to an average of 79.0 yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry.
2. The Seahawks are 26-12 against the spread in December games since Pete Carroll took over as the team’s head coach prior to the 2010 season. Recent Seattle teams have also shown a tendency to bounce back from disappointing performances similar to the one the Seahawks put forth in an overtime loss as a favorite at San Francisco on Sunday, as Seattle is 20-2 straight up and 15-5-2 against the spread when coming off an upset loss as a favorite under Carroll. The Seahawks are 19-5 against the spread past the midway point of the season under Carroll when facing a defense that’s allowing an average of 24 or more points per game, and they’re 12-2 against the spread (86%) past a season’s midway point when facing an opponent that commits an average of 60 or more penalty yards per game. The Seahawks have also shown an ability to rise to the level of competition under Carroll, going 18-9 against the spread when facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .750 or better. Perhaps most impressively, Seattle is 9-4 straight up and 12-1 against the spread as a home underdog since the start of the 2011 calendar year.
3. When going up against an opponent with a winning record, a home team that’s winning between 51 and 60 percent of their games are 25-11 against the spread in the second half of the year since the midway point of the 2014 season. That trend has gone a 17-6 against the spread during the past three seasons and 4-0 ATS so far in 2018. Turnovers are always key to any game, and Seattle certainly comes into this game with the edge in that department, having turned the ball over only five times over its past 12 games. Kansas City's offense, meanwhile, has committed nine turnovers in its past four road games, including five giveaways under the Monday Night lights against the Los Angeles Rams on Nov. 19.
Pick: Seattle +2.5
Confidence Level: Very High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)