Jacksonville has averaged less than 10 points in losing two of its last three games with backup quarterback Cody Kessler under center, and the team might be hard-pressed to hit double digits at Miami.
To say the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) are offensively challenged right now is a major understatement as they prepare to make the short trek to Miami to take on the Dolphins (7-7) on Sunday in a Week 16 AFC matchup.
In fact, the Jaguars have been challenged a lot more than most thought they would be this season, which is why they have gone from Super Bowl contenders to missing the playoffs again for the 10th time in 11 years.
Jacksonville has averaged less than 10 points in losing two of its last three games with backup quarterback Cody Kessler under center, and the team might be hard-pressed to hit double digits at Miami. The Dolphins are an impressive 6-1 straight up and against the spread at home this season, and the UNDER has cashed in five of the past six meetings with the Jaguars (averaging less than 34 points), according to the OddsShark NFL Database.
The losing team has scored 13 points or less in the last seven games between the teams as well, so going UNDER 38.5 on the NFL odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com is this week's best bet despite the number being the lowest on the betting board Sunday.
Ten of the other 12 games on Sunday's slate have totals currently sitting between 43 and 48.5 points at online betting sites with two also listed at 53 or higher. The two highest totals just so happen to feature the two highest-scoring offenses in the league, as the New Orleans Saints (12-2) host the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5-1) and the Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) visit the Seattle Seahawks (8-6).
The Chiefs are averaging an NFL-best 35.6 points while the Saints are right behind them at 32.8 per game. However, Kansas City has scored 28 points or less in splitting its last two games, and New Orleans is averaging 16.7 points in its previous three, so both of their matchups this week could go UNDER the total.
The Steelers have seen the UNDER go 4-1 in their last five games - averaging 42.4 points - so that trend seems more likely to continue against the Saints with a total of 53.5 than in the Chiefs at Seahawks game. The OVER has gone 4-0 in the past four meetings between Kansas City and Seattle (averaging 61 points), and 4-0 in the last four overall for the Chiefs with an average of 71.5 points.
Even though the total has been bet up in that one to 54 points, it will probably only continue to rise as this week's Sunday Night Football game, providing even more value on the UNDER closer to kickoff thanks to the public money.