The big question is which one of the two small road underdogs offers more betting value and has a better chance to win straight up?

By OddsShark
January 03, 2019

You can make an argument that either one of the two Saturday games in the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs should not be called upsets because the home teams are not favored by three points or more on the NFL odds. The big question is which one of the two small road underdogs offers more betting value and has a better chance to win straight up?

Each of the games are rematches from the regular season, with the Houston Texans (11-5) playing the Indianapolis Colts (10-6) for a third time as AFC South rivals. The Texans and Colts split the two previous meetings, as the road team won both times.

Indianapolis enters Saturday's matchup as a 1.5-point road underdog at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com and has gone 26-8 straight up in the past 34 meetings. The Colts have also covered the spread in three of the last four, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

While they have gone 4-1 SU in their previous five divisional games, they have struggled in their last five on the road in the postseason with a 1-4 mark both SU and ATS. Houston has gone 4-1 ATS on the point spread in its last five home games too, which should be a bit of a concern if you are thinking about backing the road underdog here.

Later on Saturday night, the Dallas Cowboys (10-6) host the Seattle Seahawks (10-6) as two-point home favorites. The Cowboys are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight games, but they lost 24-13 to the Seahawks back in Week 3 as one-point road underdogs.

Of course Dallas did not have wide receiver Amari Cooper yet, but Seattle has the capability to match up with him defensively now and hold him in check.

The Seahawks are Saturday's best wager on the NFL betting lines because they have huge edges with head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson over their counterparts. The Cowboys were the NFC's top seed two years ago and lost at home to the Green Bay Packers, and they will be going up against a team that has gone 25-6-4 ATS in its last 35 night games. The Seahawks will be more than ready for prime time and pull off the upset.

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