The Patriots are 6-1 straight up and against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog with Tom Brady under center. Should you take them to cover in Kansas City?

By OddsShark
January 17, 2019

The Kansas City Chiefs (13-4) have tried hard to put their recent playoff history in the past going into Sunday's AFC Championship Game against the New England Patriots (12-5), mainly because the results have been negative much more often than not.

But the Chiefs should consider themselves fortunate to be hosting the Patriots rather than visiting them as the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which is why they are three-point home favorites on the NFL odds at sportsbooks monitored by rather than three-point underdogs.

New England's road struggles this season led to a 3-5 mark both straight up and against the spread. If you do the math there, all of the losses for the Patriots took place away from home, and all versus opponents that did not make the playoffs this year.

New England went a perfect 8-0 SU at Gillette Stadium - the only team in the league to accomplish that feat in 2017 - including a 43-40 victory against Kansas City in Week 6 as a 3.5-point favorite.

The Chiefs, at +275 on the updated Super Bowl odds, are lucky that game did not decide home-field advantage here, with the Patriots ending up one victory short of making that happen to prevent a tie-breaking opportunity. New England lost on the road to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers, and the team needed just one more win to host the conference title game for the fourth time in five years.

Sure, Kansas City is benefiting from that rare shortcoming from a five-time Super Bowl champion and hopes to take advantage of it again on Sunday. But the Chiefs are also undoubtedly much better than all of those teams the Patriots lost to this season, and they are on an 8-1 SU run as home favorites at online sports betting sites.

The lone concern they should have about this rematch is Tom Brady's ability to come through as an underdog. New England is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games as an underdog with the future Hall of Famer.

That said, this is the new age of Patrick Mahomes, as the 23-year-old NFL MVP favorite will make the 41-year-old Brady and the rest of the Patriots feel old. Kansas City is the best bet to win and cover en route to earning a trip to the Super Bowl in Atlanta.

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