Mailbag: Where Will Deshaun Watson Play in 2022?

Plus, have the Packers really not received an offer for Aaron Rodgers? How much will Sean McVay sign for? How can the Bills improve? And more!

INDIANAPOLIS — All your answers, right here …

From Alan C. Chapman (@Mr_Chappy): Based on what the Texans’ GM said at the combine, do they think Deshaun Watson will play for them again, and basically holding Watson hostage at this point? They don’t seem to be publicly talking trades.

From mark furlong (@mfurlong): Who gets Deshaun?

Alan, I actually don’t think there’s any sort of new bad blood between Deshaun Watson and the Texans. There is and always was going to be a process to all of this. Part of it is the potential for legal resolution, on both the criminal and civil front, of the 22 lawsuits filed against him. Part of it is the reality that the quarterback trade market has gotten gummed up, and likely will stay that way, as long as there’s uncertainty surrounding Aaron Rodgers.

Could Texans GM Nick Caserio trade Watson today? Sure. And he’d get a nice return. But this isn’t about making out O.K. and offloading an unhappy player. This is about getting the kind of franchise-shifting return that a 26-year-old franchise quarterback with four years left on his contract should bring. Which is to say I think Houston sells off Watson when Caserio sees the opportunity to sell high.

Clarity on Watson’s legal situation, where he’s at with the league, and bigger quarterback picture across the NFL for 2022 should help Caserio get there.

As for who he lands with, the Broncos and Eagles are two teams that I believe would make strong bids, depending on how a few other things play out (the availability of Rodgers and Russell Wilson, etc.). I’d think the Panthers will try to reenter the picture too, and it’s hard to rule out a dark horse or two (Cleveland? Tampa?) for getting involved. We should know more soon enough.

From Lennon theus (@broncolen30): Is it true the Packers have not received an offer for Rodgers?

Lennon, I think it’s certainly possible there’s a semantics game being played here. Think about GM Brian Gutekunst’s options in answering that question …

1. Yes, we’ve taken trade calls. That one opens the team up to questions of why they’d field those calls, and what the substance of the calls were
2. Yes, but we hung up on those teams. We’re not trading Aaron. That would probably smack a bit much of the team’s defiance last year, when things weren’t so good.
3. No, we haven’t fielded those calls. This one, at least, leaves things open-ended.

Now, do I think teams have checked in on Rodgers? Probably. But things are still delicate between the Rodgers and the Packers, and the communication to this point has been good, so really there’s no need to air anything publicly. Last year was different, because there was almost no communication between the team and its quarterback, so the things said publicly were open to as much interpretation as either party desired.

In this case, as long as the sides are talking, what’s said publicly is a lot less relevant.

Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

From SB LVI Champs - TheMikeBar3 (@themikebar3): How much did McVay sign for? Or, did he?

Mike, Sean McVay doesn’t have a contract yet, but there’s been an expectation that he’ll get there, and it won’t be cheap. Last year, there were multiple NFL coaches making more than $15 million per, and more than a quarter of the league’s HCs were in eight figures. McVay was in that eight-figure club, and his résumé of recent success is pretty unique—five seasons, five winning records, four playoff berths, three division titles, trips to the Super Bowl with two different quarterbacks, and a championship.

And on top of that, the 36-year-old has sustained that success through a near complete turnover of his coaching staff that’s gradually happened over his half-decade in charge.

The Rams would be smart not to screw around on this one, especially since television opportunities are still lingering there for McVay, and he could theoretically simply take a year or two off and come back perhaps the most sought-after coaching candidate in the history of the league. Since he’s made his desire to coach in 2022 clear, all that’s left is for Stan Kroenke to open the vault.

From Gerry Sullivan (@gerrys109109): What do the Bills need to do to improve and win the AFC?

Gerry, the Bills are in excellent shape coming out of 2021, and so the fixes here are more touch-ups than makeovers. Harrison Phillips and Vernon Butler are free agents, so what the defensive tackle spot looks like around Ed Oliver is one open question. With Tre’Davious White coming back off an ACL, and Levi Wallace a free agent, the situation is similar at corner. And then, there’s the decision on whether or not lock up Tremaine Edmunds.

Otherwise, Buffalo’s roster in stocked with in-prime players, and a gaggle of young guys, like Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox, who are still ascending. The Bills are in an enviable spot.

From Sue Ledwith (@SueLeddie): With Daboll heading to NYG, do you think the Bills will still be as good on offense?

Sue, losing Brian Daboll is a blow, for sure. The job he did developing Josh Allen over the last four years got everyone’s attention, and for good reason, and his scheme always seemed to get the most of the guys on hand, whether it was a veteran coming over from outside the organization (like a Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley) or a young guy coming up through the pipeline (like a Knox or a Davis).

That said, I do believe Ken Dorsey is ready to be a coordinator. He spent seven seasons as position coach to Cam Newton and then Allen, and the Bills have been bracing for the possibility that Daboll could be gone for a couple years now.

And the system being left behind isn’t Daboll’s system so much as it is the Bills’ system. One of the things Daboll did best in his four years back in his native Western New York was build a scheme bespoke for the players on hand, and so that those players, and their coaches, have their fingerprints all over it.

Now, you don’t know what a guy is going to be like as a play-caller until he actually does it, and so gameday is a question, for now, with Dorsey. But he could be much more ready than his lack of coordinator experience may indicate.

From Peter Paul Gualtieri (@TheEmeraldPiper): Where the f is your mock draft?

Language! Peter Paul, we’re a little ways away from that.

From Bryce Anderson (@BryceA423): Believe Arians on his Brady comments? Sounds like Brady will want to play again at some point, and also sounds like things with the Bucs got weird. Would they really have a hard no on a trade?

Bryce, I think Arians is probably a little fed up with the questions about Brady’s future, but it also seemed pretty clear in the way that both he and GM Jason Licht talked this week in Indy that Brady himself has left the door open just enough to invite all those. Brady’s had several chances to swat down the idea that he might conduct a Favre–style unretirement and he’s declined at each turn.

I also get the Bucs getting worked up over the idea that they’d just hand Brady over to some rival team.

Ultimately, down the line, would they be more accommodating if Brady wanted to go elsewhere? It’s possible, and that’s where Brady’s situation could, indeed, mirror Favre’s. Favre retired for the second (but not final) time in early 2009. That February, he also asked for his release. It wasn’t granted. But two months later, after the Jets traded up for Mark Sanchez, Favre went back to the team again. He was granted his release following the draft, which allowed him to get to Minnesota, where he’d wanted to be from the start.

This is relevant to the Bucs’ situation in that, as of now, Tampa has no real reason to tell anyone it’d be O.K. dealing Brady. But let’s say the Bucs trade for Watson later this month. At that point, holding on to Brady would make a whole lot less sense, and it’d likely create a bottleneck of bloated quarterback cap numbers. Now, I really don’t think even in that circumstance the Bucs would cut Brady. But I bet they’d be more amenable to trading him.

From MedfordNiner (@MedfordNiner): Where does Jimmy G end up?

Medford, this one got a lot more interesting this week, with news that Jimmy Garoppolo is going under the knife and won’t be throwing again, per 49ers GM John Lynch, until late June or early July. Garoppolo also happens to be in a contract year, so a team dealing for him would have to feel good that he’d get back on time, and be game-ready fast so the team could get the most out of that one year, or be comfortable extending him.

For now, Garoppolo’s sort of in that quarterback green room waiting for the fate of Rodgers and hoping that the dominoes start falling fast thereafter.

But it does seem probable now that there’ll be less movement at the position than many expected back three or four months ago. And that raises the likelihood that Garoppolo will find himself a starting job somewhere else. My guess right now would be Carolina or Washington, with both spots being good ones for the 30-year-old to reestablish himself.

From Jay LaVa (@TheNewEnglandah): Do you see the Patriots tagging JC Jackson or an offensive lineman? What receivers do you see them being interested in?

Jay, just putting pieces together, my best-informed speculation would be that the Patriots spend the next week or so looking for a trade partner. I don’t think they want a lump sum of more than $17 million assigned to Jackson for a lame-duck year, and I also know that talks last spring and last fall only revealed how far apart the team and its star corner were on his value—so much so that neither set of discussions led to any negotiation at all.

That means, barring an 11th-hour offer reflecting a significant change of heart, the likelihood is that the Patriots are readying to move on from Jackson. And we’ll see if they can find a trade partner that’ll make the divorce a clean one.

As for the receiver market, I still think a trade for Calvin Ridley, given Ridley’s Alabama background and route-running skill that fits the Patriots like a glove, might wind up being the most enticing option for Bill Belichick. It’s also worth mentioning that Allen Robinson has some experience in a Patriots-style offense (he played for Bill O’Brien at Penn State), and, despite being a third-contract guy, is just 28 years old.

From Michael Lopez (@StatsbyLopez): Did you finally get coffee yesterday?

I did, Mike! Big thanks to the fellas at the Indianapolis Marriott, for letting me into the concierge lounge to take care of that.