49ers Potential Plans to Replace DeForest Buckner
Filling the void of a team captain, Pro Bowler and All Pro player such as DeForest Buckner will be one of the many challenges the San Francisco 49ers will face this upcoming season.
That role could certainly be filled by incoming rookie Javon Kinlaw. That’s why the 49ers spent the 14th pick on him, right? Although Kinlaw is an intriguing player and has the potential to be a superstar in this league, Assuming Kinlaw will play 100 percent of the 953 snaps left on the table by Buckner is unfair to the rookie who is having to adjust to the NFL level during a COVID distressed offseason.
Having guys like Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Dee Ford makes it a little easier to help Buckner’s replacement. But, it shouldn’t go unnoticed that Buckner faced the fourth most double teams since entering the league in 2016.
Despite the heavy load of doubled teams, Buckner tallied 28.5 sacks in four seasons. That’s 9.5 more sacks in one less season than Armstead despite Buckner having the majority of double-team duties.
Here’s a look at the pass-rush efficiency of the Buckner's potential replacements compared to Buckner.
QB Hurries per 100 snaps
Buckner: 13.94
Kinlaw: 7.39 (College)
DJ Jones: 4.76
Jullian Taylor: 4.26
Solomon Thomas: 2.57
Noticing the obvious gap between Buckner and the returning 49ers players, it’s obvious Kinlaw will be dominating the 330 pass-rush snaps leftover from Buckner. Yes, Kinlaw’s quarterback hurry efficiency rate was based on a college production. South Carolina is in the Southeastern Conference which is the most dominant college conference and provides the most NFL-ready talent in all of college football. So, Kinlaw’s production shouldn’t be taken lightly and his rate could also creep closer to Buckner’s if teams decide to double team Armstead and let Kinlaw feast with one-on-one opportunities.
Now that the blueprint for the pass-rush opportunities is laid out. What about the run defense?
Run Stop % grade via Pro Football Focus
Buckner: 7.2% (277 run-snaps)
Ronald Blair: 11.3% (80 run-snaps)
Taylor: 10% (50 run-snaps)
Armstead: 7.2% (265 run-snaps)
Jones: 7.2% (152 run-snaps)
Thomas: 5.5 (146 run-snaps)
Kinlaw: 4.8% (273 run-snaps college)
Now do you understand when I initially said it was unfair to assume Kinlaw would fill Buckner’s role completely? Kinlaw can certainly improve and get better in regards to his run defense. But to expect instant development is unlikely. Confidence is key and letting Kinlaw focus more on his pass-rush abilities would be ideal compared to giving him the full workload.
Option 1:
A healthy Ford could allow Armstead to kick inside and play as a full-time 3-technique defensive tackle as he does in pass-rush situations. Not sure the 49ers would like Ford to play that many snaps without risking injury concerns or pass-rush efficiency.
Option 2:
Similar to the first option. The 49ers can bring Blair off the edge in base packages. Blair was having a phenomenal season as the 49ers key role player off the bench before his season came to an end early against Seattle.
Option 3:
In base packages, DJ Jones will start as the nose tackle, Armstead will be on the edge and Kinlaw will see the majority of pass-rush opportunities. So who would fill in as the base defensive tackle?
The last two names are Taylor and Thomas. Last season in a minimal role, Taylor proved to be more effective in pass and run efficiency. Surely the 49ers would like to get something out of Thomas, the former first-round pick. But entering his final year under contract, the 49ers would be smart to choose the 6’5” Taylor, who has the ideal body size in a base package over Thomas.
A defensive-tackle tandem of Taylor and Kinlaw can make Buckner's absence hurt a little less.
