"Award Bet" Examination: Brandon Aiyuk's OROY Odds
BetMGM currently has Aiyuk’s Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) odds at 40 to 1.
Value Breakdown:
The top-15 OROY odds are as follows:
1. Joe Burrow, QB (Bengals): 2.4 to 1
2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB (Chiefs): 6 to 1
3. Tua Tagovailoa, QB (Dolphins): 9 to 1
T-4. D’Andre Swift, RB (Lions): 10 to 1
T-4. Jonathan Taylor, RB (Colts): 10 to 1
T-6. CeeDee Lamb, WR (Cowboys): 14 to 1
T-6. Jerry Jeudy, WR (Broncos): 14 to 1
8. Henry Ruggs, WR (Raiders): 18 to 1
T-9. Justin Herbert, QB (Chargers): 20 to 1
T-9. Jalen Reagor, WR (Eagles): 20 to 1
11. Justin Jefferson, WR (Vikings): 22 to 1
T-12. Cam Akers, RB (Rams): 25 to 1
T-12. Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB (Buccaneers): 25 to 1
T-14. Michael Pittman Jr., WR (Colts): 40 to 1
T-14. Brandon Aiyuk, WR (49ers): 40 to 1
Brandon Aiyuk’s 40-to-1 odds make him a long shot at best, and for good reason. Going back the last 20 years, only three wide receivers have won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Those players were Anquan Boldin (2002), Percy Harvin (2009) and Odell Beckham Jr (2014).
Outside of those three receivers, eight quarterbacks and nine running backs have won the award within that same time frame.
Even if a wide receiver were to win the award this year, the chances of that receiver being Aiyuk are slim. There are five players at the position with better odds than Aiyuk, in addition to Michael Pittman Jr. who has the same odds.
All of the receivers with better odds than Aiyuk are in offenses that throw the ball at a higher clip. Most of their offenses threw the ball substantially more than the 49ers in 2019.
- Reagor (Eagles): 57.5% Pass Percentage
- Lamb (Cowboys): 57% Pass Percentage
- Jeudy (Broncos): 55% Pass Percentage
- Ruggs (Raiders): 54.5% Pass Percentage
- Pittman Jr. (Colts) 52% Pass Percentage
- Jefferson (Vikings): 49.5% Pass Percentage
- Aiyuk (49ers): 49% Pass Percentage
The reality is all of the receivers above are going to have a challenging time winning OROY. The award has only gone to a receiver 15% of the time within the last 20 years.
Aiyuk has the slightest of slight chances of winning the award.
Pros of Aiyuk’s OROY Chances:
Aiyuk is playing for one of, if not the best player caller in the NFL. Kyle Shanahan will not limit Aiyuk to lining up only as a receiver, but will use him similarly to Deebo Samuel.
This means Aiyuk most likely will see a fair dosage of run plays come his way, just like Samuel did last season. The skillset and versatility of Aiyuk makes him as much of an offensive weapon as he is a wide receiver.
Another pro of Aiyuk’s OROY chances is that he is a great return man. Last season at Arizona State, Aiyuk averaged more than 30 yards per kick return and more than 15 yards per punt return. He also returned one of those punts for a touchdown.
If Aiyuk takes over return duties, which seems likely with a crowded receiver room and Richie James Jr. appearing to be on the outside looking in, then that significantly increases his OROY odds.
Percy Harvin, one of the three receivers to win OROY in the last 20 years, was a major threat as a returner his rookie season.
Harvin returned 42 kickoffs for 1,156 yards and two touchdowns. Additionally, Harvin caught 60 passes for 790 yards and 6 touchdowns and ran the ball 15 times for 135 yards.
Obviously, a lot has changed regarding kickoff rules since Harvin’s rookie year, so Aiyuk returning 40 or more kicks seems unlikely. Last season, Steven Simms of the Washington Redskins returned a league-high 32 kick-offs for 819 yards and a touchdown.
The best case scenario for Aiyuk is that he plays a role similar to Samuel last year, and sees a high volume of return opportunities. That is the only way his OROY hopes will stay alive.
Cons of Aiyuk’s OROY chances:
The 49ers are simply too balanced offensively for Aiyuk to make enough noise to win the award as a long shot.
An offense that runs the ball more than it throws doesn’t bode well for a receiver trying to win OROY. Even if Aiyuk gets some carries out of the backfield or on jet-sweeps, he’ll probably only get about 15 to 20 attempts throughout the season. That is right in line with Samuel’s rush attempts last year.
Samuel had a tremendous rookie season, during which he recorded 961 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns. Despite those numbers, Samuel remained overlooked as plenty of other rookie receivers were putting similar or better numbers.
There was little to no consideration for Samuel to win the 2019 OROY. In fact, Samuel didn’t even receive a spot on the Pro Football Writers Association’s “All-Rookie Team”. Those spots went to AJ Brown (Titans) and Terry McLaurin (Redskins).
Even if Aiyuk puts up numbers aligned with Samuel’s rookie season, he most likely will be overlooked as well. Many draft analysts said this was one of the best receiver classes in the history of the league.
The hype this receiving class has and is continuing to receive will make it tough for Aiyuk to stand out.
Play or Pass on Aiyuk’s 40 to 1 odds: Pass
There are very valid reasons as to why Aiyuk is such a long shot to win the award. In a loaded receiver class and with a plethora of worthy quarterback and running back candidates, Aiyuk does not have a realistic shot at winning the award.
Side Note: NFL History Lesson
The 49ers have never drafted an Offensive Rookie of the Year throughout their entire franchise history.
Odds are they’ll be without one again this year.
Follow me on Twitter: @NinerNick_22
