Cardinals @ 49ers: Week One Odds and Predictions

Going into each week, I’ll preview the point spread and over/under for the upcoming 49ers game. Additionally, all SI writers will give their predictions of the point spread and over/under. You could participate as well, by dropping your predictions in the comment section!

Author:
Nicolas Newman
Sep 11, 2020 4:56 PM EDT

Point Spread: 49ers - 7

Over/Under: 48 points

Analysis: The point spread, or line if you will, has fluctuated quite a bit. The opening line had the 49ers as 8.5 point favorites, while the current line has dropped as low as 6.5.

When the All49ers Sports Illustrated team made their predictions, the line was 7. So that is the line we’ll go with.

Last year, the 49ers did not cover the spread either time the two teams played. However, both of the overs hit.

Matchup #1: Thursday, October 31st, 2019 (in Arizona)

Point spread: 49ers -10.5 - Cardinals +10.5
Over/Under: 43 points
Final score: 49ers 28 - Cardinals 25
Spread winner: Cardinals + 10.5
Over/Under winner: Over (53 combined points)

Matchup #2: Sunday, November 17th, 2019 (in Santa Clara)

Point spread: Cardinals +11.5 - 49ers -11.5
Over/Under: 46 points
Final Score: 49ers 36 - Cardinals 26
Spread winner: Cardinals +11.5
Over/Under winner: Over (62 combined points)

Reflecting on last year’s matchups against the Cardinals, they played the 49ers extremely tough. Kyler Murray did a tremendous job of taking care of the ball - zero turnovers in either game - and did exactly what he needed to do to keep the game competitive and close.

The two times these teams met in 2019, George Kittle was either limited or did not play. Kittle got hurt in the first game against the Cardinals, and did not play the second go around. Without him, the 49ers really struggled to get anything going on the ground. They certainly missed his run blocking presence.

With the run game nonexistent, the team became one-dimensional. However, Jimmy Garoppolo rose to the challenge, as he threw for 718 yards and 8 touchdowns in those games.

This is how I see Sunday’s game unfolding:

Spread prediction: 49ers cover the 7 points

Last year, the 49ers couldn’t cover the spread against the Cardinals to save their life. I believe that changes, starting with this game, for a couple of reasons.

-With the addition of Trent Williams and a healthy Kittle, the team will be able to establish their run game. As stated before, something they were not able to accomplish last year. If the Cardinals stop or even slow down the 49ers ground attack, it’ll be rather surprising. I just don’t see that happening. Having a successful pass and run balance will go a long way towards covering the 7 points.

- The Cardinals defense, not Kyler Murray, will be the reason the Cardinals lose by more than seven points. Murray is a very savvy mobile quarterback, which is the type of QB the 49ers struggled with a great deal last year. I expect Murray to keep the Cardinals in the game, but in the long run the Cardinals defense won’t be able to hold up its end of the bargain.

-The 49ers drop 30 points on the Cardinals. Over the course of the 2019 season, the team averaged 29.9 points per game. In the two matchups against Arizona, they averaged 32. That trend will continue on Sunday.

Over/Under Prediction: Over 48 points

I’m expecting the 49ers to put up 30, which means the Cardinals need to put up 19 points of their own for the game to hit the over.

Will that happen? I say yes. The Cardinals are the only team that played the 49ers twice last year, and were able to score 50 or more points. The Rams, Seahawks, and Packers could not. Give the Cardinals some respect for averaging more than 25 points per game on one of the best defenses in the league.

I could see a very specific scenario unfolding where the 49ers are up in the 30 to 14 range, and the Cardinals score a late touchdown and a two-point conversion to make the final score seem a lot closer than it actually was.

In fact, that's my final score prediction.

49ers 30 - Cardinals 22.

All 49ers Sports Illustrated Writers Predictions: