Is Kyle Shanahan Really on the Hot Seat?
Two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance, it’s hard to imagine that it has come to this.
Kyle Shanahan is regarded as an offensive genius and has transformed the way NFL offenses attack in recent years, but has failed to translate that into consistent winning. There have been many excuses that Shanahan has invoked to explain the losing, but all of that is irrelevant in the NFL, the ultimate results-based business.
Shanahan will enter the 2022 season with a 31-36 record including the postseason, which is good enough to rank him 22nd in terms of win percentage among active head coaches. If he fails to have a winning season in 2022, he will be the owner of 4 of 5 losing seasons while at the helm. With all that being said, the 49ers maintain a sense of optimism heading into the season promising to return to the prominence they showed in 2019. Does this mean Shanahan isn’t on the hot seat? Let’s evaluate what’s going on and decide.
First things first, Jimmy Garoppolo.
Garoppolo finds himself in the position of bridge quarterback waiting for heir apparent Trey Lance to be ready to take over the starting role. Garoppolo has been a consistent winner when on the field for the 49ers but multiple reports over the years have indicated the 49ers were not happy with his production.
Throughout this offseason, it seems clear those reports have come from Shanahan. In fact, Garoppolo appears to be a main source of contention this offseason between the front office and Shanahan. The front office and Jed York himself have openly touted Garoppolo as the unquestioned starter of the team and are pushing the narrative that rookie Lance may not be ready to play for one, maybe two seasons. Would this have anything to do with the near $90 million that has been paid to Garoppolo by the 49ers? My guess would be yes, considering the Yorks have long been considered on the cheap side and would be hard pressed to accept throwing away that kind of money.
Shanahan, on the other hand, has vehemently proclaimed Lance will play when ready and it could be sooner than later. In fact, Shanahan went on the ‘Flying Coach With Sean McVay and Peter Schrager’ podcast and openly proclaimed his interest in Matthew Stanford this offseason as a replacement for Garoppolo. Until then, only speculation regarding the 49ers interest in moving on from Garoppolo had existed but Shanahan appears to have confirmed their displeasure openly.
Garoppolo has been a cash cow for the Yorks since his arrival in Santa Clara. There may be a bigger disconnect emerging between making money that the Yorks favor and winning a Super Bowl that Shanahan has proclaimed is all that matters this offseason.
Secondly, has Shanahan Shanahan assembled a roster that is overrated?
A term 49ers fans need to become familiar with is standard deviation. This basically means how much a group can differ from its actual value. How does this relate to the 49ers? Well, the perfect explanation is to compare the 49ers actual performance to their perceived potential. On paper, the 49ers are thought to be one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, but for one reason or another don’t play up to their potential.
Injuries tend to be the most used excuse when it comes to why the 49ers don’t meet expectations. Shanahan has used this excuse in two of the past three seasons to explain why his team has underachieved. At this point, injuries for the 49ers have to be considered the norm and this needs to be factored into their standard deviation as to how good they can be. They will not finish a season 100-percent healthy and will likely have multiple key players miss significant time. This needs to be taken into account when you rank how talented their roster is at this point, basically they can only reach 70 percent or less of their potential due to injuries.
Lastly, the national media.
On April 29, 2021, Shanahan sat next to GM John Lynch and discussed picking Trey Lance with the No. 3 pick in the draft during their first-round-recap press conference. Aside from their apparent giddiness about finding their quarterback of the future, Shanahan decided to use this press conference to ridicule the national media about rumors that the 49ers would draft Mac Jones. Shanahan went on to indicate a lot of draft analysts may have even made up reports regarding 49ers potential interest in Jones. Many fans might find his actions as humorous and harmless, but they should understand the integrity of reporters is of the utmost importance when it comes to their credibility. This must have rubbed many reporters the wrong way and lost Shanahan allies in the press, especially considering that most of these national reporters are fed information from their team sources
Many fans that are not local to the Bay Area tend to get most of their reporting from national sources instead of local beat writers. While the internet and podcasting specifically has made local media more accessible, most major television platforms typically do not include local beat writers. There have already been a number of national media outlets beginning to air unflattering stories regarding the 49ers and Shanahan in the past couple of weeks, one tends to wonder where this is coming from.
49ers fans should not forget the role the national media played in the unraveling of the Jim Harbaugh Era in Santa Clara. Rampant leaks within the 49ers front office surfaced in daily national news stories throughout Harbaugh’s final season as 49ers head coach. Division and turmoil spread in the locker room as a result, according to Jimmie Ward in his recent interview with SI Publisher Grant Cohn.
If the division continues to grow within the 49ers organization, could we see the Yorks up to their old tricks? If Shanahan and the 49ers get off to a slow start in 2022, keep your eyes out on the news cycle and decide for yourself whether or not Shanahan indeed is on the hot seat.
